Following the January 2026 death of Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, California's 1st Congressional District faces a special election under the old map on August 4 and a regular general election on November 3 under a new map redrawn by Proposition 50, which shifts the district toward Democrats by adding Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican areas—yielding a hypothetical 2024 presidential margin of Kamala Harris +12 points. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage, bolstered by strong contenders like state Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire and past challenger Audrey Denney, despite Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher's fundraising lead and endorsements from Donald Trump and other GOP figures. The June 2 top-two primary will determine November matchup; realistic challenges include Democratic primary infighting allowing a Republican advance, low Democratic turnout, or rural issues dominating in this agricultural battleground spanning Butte to Sonoma counties.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$21,980 Обс.
$21,980 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
6%
$21,980 Обс.
$21,980 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,151 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$7,829 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following the January 2026 death of Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, California's 1st Congressional District faces a special election under the old map on August 4 and a regular general election on November 3 under a new map redrawn by Proposition 50, which shifts the district toward Democrats by adding Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican areas—yielding a hypothetical 2024 presidential margin of Kamala Harris +12 points. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage, bolstered by strong contenders like state Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire and past challenger Audrey Denney, despite Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher's fundraising lead and endorsements from Donald Trump and other GOP figures. The June 2 top-two primary will determine November matchup; realistic challenges include Democratic primary infighting allowing a Republican advance, low Democratic turnout, or rural issues dominating in this agricultural battleground spanning Butte to Sonoma counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$21,980Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following the January 2026 death of Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, California's 1st Congressional District faces a special election under the old map on August 4 and a regular general election on November 3 under a new map redrawn by Proposition 50, which shifts the district toward Democrats by adding Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican areas—yielding a hypothetical 2024 presidential margin of Kamala Harris +12 points. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage, bolstered by strong contenders like state Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire and past challenger Audrey Denney, despite Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher's fundraising lead and endorsements from Donald Trump and other GOP figures. The June 2 top-two primary will determine November matchup; realistic challenges include Democratic primary infighting allowing a Republican advance, low Democratic turnout, or rural issues dominating in this agricultural battleground spanning Butte to Sonoma counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$21,980Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following the January 2026 death of Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, California's 1st Congressional District faces a special election under the old map on August 4 and a regular general election on November 3 under a new map redrawn by Proposition 50, which shifts the district toward Democrats by adding Santa Rosa while removing rural Republican areas—yielding a hypothetical 2024 presidential margin of Kamala Harris +12 points. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Democrats reflects this structural advantage, bolstered by strong contenders like state Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire and past challenger Audrey Denney, despite Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher's fundraising lead and endorsements from Donald Trump and other GOP figures. The June 2 top-two primary will determine November matchup; realistic challenges include Democratic primary infighting allowing a Republican advance, low Democratic turnout, or rural issues dominating in this agricultural battleground spanning Butte to Sonoma counties.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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