California’s 1st congressional district features new boundaries from recent redistricting that add Democratic-leaning areas and produce a partisan voting index favoring Democrats. This structural shift underpins trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a commanding lead for the November 2026 general election winner. The vacancy created by the January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a separate special election using the prior map, but that contest does not alter the outlook for the full-term seat. Democratic candidates, including state Senate veteran Mike McGuire, benefit from the altered electorate and strong party infrastructure. Republican prospects remain limited absent major shifts in turnout patterns or late developments within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-01 House Election Winner
CA-01 House Election Winner
$23,554 Обс.
$23,554 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
5%
$23,554 Обс.
$23,554 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$15,638 Обс.
93%
Republican Party
$7,916 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 1st congressional district features new boundaries from recent redistricting that add Democratic-leaning areas and produce a partisan voting index favoring Democrats. This structural shift underpins trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a commanding lead for the November 2026 general election winner. The vacancy created by the January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a separate special election using the prior map, but that contest does not alter the outlook for the full-term seat. Democratic candidates, including state Senate veteran Mike McGuire, benefit from the altered electorate and strong party infrastructure. Republican prospects remain limited absent major shifts in turnout patterns or late developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$23,554Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 1st congressional district features new boundaries from recent redistricting that add Democratic-leaning areas and produce a partisan voting index favoring Democrats. This structural shift underpins trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a commanding lead for the November 2026 general election winner. The vacancy created by the January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a separate special election using the prior map, but that contest does not alter the outlook for the full-term seat. Democratic candidates, including state Senate veteran Mike McGuire, benefit from the altered electorate and strong party infrastructure. Republican prospects remain limited absent major shifts in turnout patterns or late developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$23,554Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 1st congressional district features new boundaries from recent redistricting that add Democratic-leaning areas and produce a partisan voting index favoring Democrats. This structural shift underpins trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a commanding lead for the November 2026 general election winner. The vacancy created by the January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a separate special election using the prior map, but that contest does not alter the outlook for the full-term seat. Democratic candidates, including state Senate veteran Mike McGuire, benefit from the altered electorate and strong party infrastructure. Republican prospects remain limited absent major shifts in turnout patterns or late developments within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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