Renan Santos leads trader expectations for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polls place him and Ronaldo Caiado in a tight battle for that spot behind frontrunners Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Santos, president of the newly registered Missão party and former Free Brazil Movement activist, has drawn growing support among younger voters through social-media outreach and an anti-establishment, pro-market stance positioned to the right of Bolsonarism. Caiado’s late-July PSD nomination and traditional conservative profile have kept him competitive but without comparable digital momentum. Lower-polling right-wing figures such as Romeu Zema and others remain further back, while Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro’s dominance leaves little room for them to finish third. The current pricing reflects this narrow contest among secondary candidates ahead of the August 15 registration deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRenan Santos 64%
Ronaldo Caiado 27%
Romeu Zema 3.9%
Flávio Bolsonaro 3.6%
$520,572 Обс.
$520,572 Обс.

Renan Santos
64%

Ronaldo Caiado
27%

Romeu Zema
4%

Flávio Bolsonaro
4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Aldo Rebelo
<1%

Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%

Camilo Santana
<1%

Geraldo Alckmin
<1%

Eduardo Leite
<1%

Fernando Haddad
<1%

Jair Bolsonaro
<1%

Tereza Cristina
<1%

Helder Barbalho
<1%
Renan Santos 64%
Ronaldo Caiado 27%
Romeu Zema 3.9%
Flávio Bolsonaro 3.6%
$520,572 Обс.
$520,572 Обс.

Renan Santos
64%

Ronaldo Caiado
27%

Romeu Zema
4%

Flávio Bolsonaro
4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Aldo Rebelo
<1%

Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%

Camilo Santana
<1%

Geraldo Alckmin
<1%

Eduardo Leite
<1%

Fernando Haddad
<1%

Jair Bolsonaro
<1%

Tereza Cristina
<1%

Helder Barbalho
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Renan Santos leads trader expectations for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polls place him and Ronaldo Caiado in a tight battle for that spot behind frontrunners Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Santos, president of the newly registered Missão party and former Free Brazil Movement activist, has drawn growing support among younger voters through social-media outreach and an anti-establishment, pro-market stance positioned to the right of Bolsonarism. Caiado’s late-July PSD nomination and traditional conservative profile have kept him competitive but without comparable digital momentum. Lower-polling right-wing figures such as Romeu Zema and others remain further back, while Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro’s dominance leaves little room for them to finish third. The current pricing reflects this narrow contest among secondary candidates ahead of the August 15 registration deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання