**Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round voting intentions in recent state-specific polls, often ahead of or tied with incumbent President Lula, reflecting São Paulo’s status as Brazil’s largest electoral college and a key opposition stronghold.** Polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and others since June have shown Flavio at 30–36% versus Lula’s 29–35% in the state, with the gap within or near the margin of error and other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos in single digits. Flavio’s July Liberal Party convention in São Paulo, local alliances including Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have reinforced his positioning there. National trends favor Lula overall, but São Paulo polling and campaign focus have driven trader consensus toward Flavio for first place on October 4.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFlavio Bolsonaro 88%
Lula 10.4%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$20,334 Обс.
$20,334 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
88%
Lula
10%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 88%
Lula 10.4%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$20,334 Обс.
$20,334 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$6,870 Обс.
88%
Lula
$6,629 Обс.
10%
Pablo Marçal
$1,101 Обс.
1%
Renan Santos
$1,360 Обс.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$427 Обс.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Обс.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$421 Обс.
<1%
Samara
$418 Обс.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$543 Обс.
<1%
Zema
$588 Обс.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$426 Обс.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$714 Обс.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$412 Обс.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round voting intentions in recent state-specific polls, often ahead of or tied with incumbent President Lula, reflecting São Paulo’s status as Brazil’s largest electoral college and a key opposition stronghold.**
Polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and others since June have shown Flavio at 30–36% versus Lula’s 29–35% in the state, with the gap within or near the margin of error and other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos in single digits. Flavio’s July Liberal Party convention in São Paulo, local alliances including Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have reinforced his positioning there. National trends favor Lula overall, but São Paulo polling and campaign focus have driven trader consensus toward Flavio for first place on October 4.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$20,334Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round voting intentions in recent state-specific polls, often ahead of or tied with incumbent President Lula, reflecting São Paulo’s status as Brazil’s largest electoral college and a key opposition stronghold.**
Polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and others since June have shown Flavio at 30–36% versus Lula’s 29–35% in the state, with the gap within or near the margin of error and other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos in single digits. Flavio’s July Liberal Party convention in São Paulo, local alliances including Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have reinforced his positioning there. National trends favor Lula overall, but São Paulo polling and campaign focus have driven trader consensus toward Flavio for first place on October 4.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$20,334Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Flávio Bolsonaro leads São Paulo first-round voting intentions in recent state-specific polls, often ahead of or tied with incumbent President Lula, reflecting São Paulo’s status as Brazil’s largest electoral college and a key opposition stronghold.** Polls from Quaest, Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and others since June have shown Flavio at 30–36% versus Lula’s 29–35% in the state, with the gap within or near the margin of error and other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos in single digits. Flavio’s July Liberal Party convention in São Paulo, local alliances including Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement have reinforced his positioning there. National trends favor Lula overall, but São Paulo polling and campaign focus have driven trader consensus toward Flavio for first place on October 4.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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