Flávio Bolsonaro holds an 87.5% implied probability as the top vote-getter in Rio Grande do Sul’s October 2026 first round, with Lula at 12.5% and all other named candidates at 0.1% or 50%. State-level polling from Real Time Big Data and Quaest through August shows the Liberal Party nominee consistently leading or tied with the incumbent president among gaúcho voters, while Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in low single digits. Traders appear to view this pattern as durable given the state’s historical support for the Bolsonaro family, Flávio’s July 2026 formal nomination by the PL, and the absence of any late surge by alternatives. Resolution will follow official first-round tallies reported by the TSE.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
Flavio Bolsonaro 88%
Lula 12%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$22,073 Обс.
$22,073 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
88%
Lula
12%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 88%
Lula 12%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$22,073 Обс.
$22,073 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$7,420 Обс.
88%
Lula
$3,650 Обс.
12%
Edmilson Costa
$1,437 Обс.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$1,171 Обс.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$1,417 Обс.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$493 Обс.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$858 Обс.
<1%
Renan Santos
$591 Обс.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$1,087 Обс.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$641 Обс.
<1%
Samara
$1,376 Обс.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$759 Обс.
<1%
Zema
$1,173 Обс.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds an 87.5% implied probability as the top vote-getter in Rio Grande do Sul’s October 2026 first round, with Lula at 12.5% and all other named candidates at 0.1% or 50%. State-level polling from Real Time Big Data and Quaest through August shows the Liberal Party nominee consistently leading or tied with the incumbent president among gaúcho voters, while Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in low single digits. Traders appear to view this pattern as durable given the state’s historical support for the Bolsonaro family, Flávio’s July 2026 formal nomination by the PL, and the absence of any late surge by alternatives. Resolution will follow official first-round tallies reported by the TSE.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET
Обсяг
$22,073Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds an 87.5% implied probability as the top vote-getter in Rio Grande do Sul’s October 2026 first round, with Lula at 12.5% and all other named candidates at 0.1% or 50%. State-level polling from Real Time Big Data and Quaest through August shows the Liberal Party nominee consistently leading or tied with the incumbent president among gaúcho voters, while Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in low single digits. Traders appear to view this pattern as durable given the state’s historical support for the Bolsonaro family, Flávio’s July 2026 formal nomination by the PL, and the absence of any late surge by alternatives. Resolution will follow official first-round tallies reported by the TSE.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$22,073Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds an 87.5% implied probability as the top vote-getter in Rio Grande do Sul’s October 2026 first round, with Lula at 12.5% and all other named candidates at 0.1% or 50%. State-level polling from Real Time Big Data and Quaest through August shows the Liberal Party nominee consistently leading or tied with the incumbent president among gaúcho voters, while Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in low single digits. Traders appear to view this pattern as durable given the state’s historical support for the Bolsonaro family, Flávio’s July 2026 formal nomination by the PL, and the absence of any late surge by alternatives. Resolution will follow official first-round tallies reported by the TSE.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Norte?
97%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?
90%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?
95%
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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