Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the October 4 first round, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 37-41% against Flavio Bolsonaro in the low 30s and all other candidates in single digits. This positioning reflects the incumbent's established base in northern states, where federal social programs and regional policy priorities have historically bolstered Workers' Party support. Traders price the outcome at 94% for Lula because state-level data have shown limited movement despite national tightening between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro. A late surge by scattered opposition votes or shifts in undecided voters could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner in this specific electorate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLula 95%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.7%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.7%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$17,553 Обс.
$17,553 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 95%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.7%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.7%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$17,553 Обс.
$17,553 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$8,274 Обс.
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,214 Обс.
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
$574 Обс.
2%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$555 Обс.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$857 Обс.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$1,289 Обс.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$663 Обс.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$658 Обс.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$685 Обс.
<1%
Samara
$698 Обс.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$490 Обс.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Обс.
<1%
Zema
$989 Обс.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the October 4 first round, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 37-41% against Flavio Bolsonaro in the low 30s and all other candidates in single digits. This positioning reflects the incumbent's established base in northern states, where federal social programs and regional policy priorities have historically bolstered Workers' Party support. Traders price the outcome at 94% for Lula because state-level data have shown limited movement despite national tightening between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro. A late surge by scattered opposition votes or shifts in undecided voters could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner in this specific electorate.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Обсяг
$17,553Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the October 4 first round, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 37-41% against Flavio Bolsonaro in the low 30s and all other candidates in single digits. This positioning reflects the incumbent's established base in northern states, where federal social programs and regional policy priorities have historically bolstered Workers' Party support. Traders price the outcome at 94% for Lula because state-level data have shown limited movement despite national tightening between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro. A late surge by scattered opposition votes or shifts in undecided voters could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner in this specific electorate.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$17,553Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the October 4 first round, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showing him at 37-41% against Flavio Bolsonaro in the low 30s and all other candidates in single digits. This positioning reflects the incumbent's established base in northern states, where federal social programs and regional policy priorities have historically bolstered Workers' Party support. Traders price the outcome at 94% for Lula because state-level data have shown limited movement despite national tightening between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro. A late surge by scattered opposition votes or shifts in undecided voters could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner in this specific electorate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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