Recent July 2026 data showing annual inflation at 5.9% and the Bank of Russia’s upward revision of its 2026 forecast to 6.0–7.0%—driven by one-off fuel price spikes from Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries—have shifted trader focus toward caution. The central bank’s 25-basis-point cut to 14% at its July 24 meeting, paired with signals for a smoother easing path amid expansionary fiscal policy and stable underlying inflation near 4–5%, supports the 62.5% implied probability of no change at the September 11 meeting. Moderate economic growth, decelerating lending, and reduced business expectations further tilt consensus against additional cuts or any hike, while the low 1.7% odds for an increase reflect limited upside risks in current conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBank of Russia decision in September?
No Change 63%
Decrease 32%
Increase 1.7%
$64,497 Обс.
$64,497 Обс.
Decrease
32%
No Change
63%
Increase
2%
No Change 63%
Decrease 32%
Increase 1.7%
$64,497 Обс.
$64,497 Обс.
Decrease
32%
No Change
63%
Increase
2%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 23, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 data showing annual inflation at 5.9% and the Bank of Russia’s upward revision of its 2026 forecast to 6.0–7.0%—driven by one-off fuel price spikes from Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries—have shifted trader focus toward caution. The central bank’s 25-basis-point cut to 14% at its July 24 meeting, paired with signals for a smoother easing path amid expansionary fiscal policy and stable underlying inflation near 4–5%, supports the 62.5% implied probability of no change at the September 11 meeting. Moderate economic growth, decelerating lending, and reduced business expectations further tilt consensus against additional cuts or any hike, while the low 1.7% odds for an increase reflect limited upside risks in current conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено


Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання