**Recent hawkish guidance from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who stated that rate adjustments remain under consideration at every policy meeting including the September 17-18 gathering, has reinforced market expectations for a potential 25-basis-point hike then, supporting the 82.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting.** Persistent upside inflation risks from a weak yen, elevated crude oil prices tied to Middle East developments, and broadening price pressures have kept the policy board focused on normalizing from the 1% level reached in June, yet the gradual pace favored by most economists and the board’s data-dependent approach limit the odds of back-to-back increases. With the next catalysts including September CPI readings and the outcome of the imminent meeting, trader consensus reflects measured expectations for one move per quarter absent sharper inflation overshoots.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 83%
25 bps increase 18%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$76,274 Обс.
$76,274 Обс.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
83%
25 bps increase
18%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 83%
25 bps increase 18%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$76,274 Обс.
$76,274 Обс.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,845 Обс.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$6,078 Обс.
<1%
No change
$31,715 Обс.
83%
25 bps increase
$27,480 Обс.
18%
50+ bps increase
$7,156 Обс.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Recent hawkish guidance from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who stated that rate adjustments remain under consideration at every policy meeting including the September 17-18 gathering, has reinforced market expectations for a potential 25-basis-point hike then, supporting the 82.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting.**
Persistent upside inflation risks from a weak yen, elevated crude oil prices tied to Middle East developments, and broadening price pressures have kept the policy board focused on normalizing from the 1% level reached in June, yet the gradual pace favored by most economists and the board’s data-dependent approach limit the odds of back-to-back increases. With the next catalysts including September CPI readings and the outcome of the imminent meeting, trader consensus reflects measured expectations for one move per quarter absent sharper inflation overshoots.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$76,274Дата завершення
Oct 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Recent hawkish guidance from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who stated that rate adjustments remain under consideration at every policy meeting including the September 17-18 gathering, has reinforced market expectations for a potential 25-basis-point hike then, supporting the 82.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting.**
Persistent upside inflation risks from a weak yen, elevated crude oil prices tied to Middle East developments, and broadening price pressures have kept the policy board focused on normalizing from the 1% level reached in June, yet the gradual pace favored by most economists and the board’s data-dependent approach limit the odds of back-to-back increases. With the next catalysts including September CPI readings and the outcome of the imminent meeting, trader consensus reflects measured expectations for one move per quarter absent sharper inflation overshoots.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$76,274Дата завершення
Oct 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Recent hawkish guidance from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who stated that rate adjustments remain under consideration at every policy meeting including the September 17-18 gathering, has reinforced market expectations for a potential 25-basis-point hike then, supporting the 82.5% implied probability of no change at the October meeting.** Persistent upside inflation risks from a weak yen, elevated crude oil prices tied to Middle East developments, and broadening price pressures have kept the policy board focused on normalizing from the 1% level reached in June, yet the gradual pace favored by most economists and the board’s data-dependent approach limit the odds of back-to-back increases. With the next catalysts including September CPI readings and the outcome of the imminent meeting, trader consensus reflects measured expectations for one move per quarter absent sharper inflation overshoots.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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