Elevated UK inflation, which climbed to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.6% the prior month amid higher energy costs tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, is the dominant driver behind trader positioning. Market-implied odds currently favor a 25 basis point Bank Rate hike at the November MPC meeting over no change, reflecting expectations that persistent upside risks to the CPI trajectory will prompt the committee to tighten policy despite the current 3.75% rate. Recent Reuters polling and OIS pricing indicate growing anticipation of rate increases through mid-2027, contrasting with earlier median forecasts for cuts. The September 17 decision and upcoming inflation releases will provide key signals on whether second-round effects from energy prices materialize, influencing the balance between the leading outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено25 bps increase 54%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$44,325 Обс.
$44,325 Обс.
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
54%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase 54%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$44,325 Обс.
$44,325 Обс.
Nov 5, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,742 Обс.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$3,067 Обс.
<1%
No change
$21,683 Обс.
40%
25 bps increase
$11,031 Обс.
54%
50+ bps increase
$4,802 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated UK inflation, which climbed to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.6% the prior month amid higher energy costs tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, is the dominant driver behind trader positioning. Market-implied odds currently favor a 25 basis point Bank Rate hike at the November MPC meeting over no change, reflecting expectations that persistent upside risks to the CPI trajectory will prompt the committee to tighten policy despite the current 3.75% rate. Recent Reuters polling and OIS pricing indicate growing anticipation of rate increases through mid-2027, contrasting with earlier median forecasts for cuts. The September 17 decision and upcoming inflation releases will provide key signals on whether second-round effects from energy prices materialize, influencing the balance between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Обсяг
$44,325Дата завершення
Nov 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 5:42 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated UK inflation, which climbed to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.6% the prior month amid higher energy costs tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, is the dominant driver behind trader positioning. Market-implied odds currently favor a 25 basis point Bank Rate hike at the November MPC meeting over no change, reflecting expectations that persistent upside risks to the CPI trajectory will prompt the committee to tighten policy despite the current 3.75% rate. Recent Reuters polling and OIS pricing indicate growing anticipation of rate increases through mid-2027, contrasting with earlier median forecasts for cuts. The September 17 decision and upcoming inflation releases will provide key signals on whether second-round effects from energy prices materialize, influencing the balance between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Обсяг
$44,325Дата завершення
Nov 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 5:42 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Elevated UK inflation, which climbed to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.6% the prior month amid higher energy costs tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, is the dominant driver behind trader positioning. Market-implied odds currently favor a 25 basis point Bank Rate hike at the November MPC meeting over no change, reflecting expectations that persistent upside risks to the CPI trajectory will prompt the committee to tighten policy despite the current 3.75% rate. Recent Reuters polling and OIS pricing indicate growing anticipation of rate increases through mid-2027, contrasting with earlier median forecasts for cuts. The September 17 decision and upcoming inflation releases will provide key signals on whether second-round effects from energy prices materialize, influencing the balance between the leading outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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