**Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision reflect trader focus on the central bank’s data-dependent approach amid offsetting risks from stronger growth and energy-driven inflation pressures.** The September 2 hold at 2.25% highlighted Q2 GDP growth of 3.3% alongside headline CPI near 3%, fueled by elevated oil prices from Middle East developments, while underlying measures stayed contained and trade tensions with the U.S. added growth uncertainty. Overnight index swap pricing shows a modest tightening bias, but the 68.2% probability of no change versus 31.9% for a 25-basis-point hike indicates markets see limited near-term conviction for immediate action ahead of the Monetary Policy Report and fresh forecasts. Recent labor data and the August CPI release due today will likely influence whether the balance tilts toward a hike or extended pause.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo Change 67.1%
25 bps increase 31.9%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$73,903 Обс.
$73,903 Обс.
Oct 27, 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
32%
No Change
67%
25 bps decrease
1%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
No Change 67.1%
25 bps increase 31.9%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$73,903 Обс.
$73,903 Обс.
Oct 27, 2026
50+ bps increase
$8,105 Обс.
<1%
25 bps increase
$17,812 Обс.
32%
No Change
$31,198 Обс.
67%
25 bps decrease
$12,724 Обс.
1%
50+ bps decrease
$4,064 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision reflect trader focus on the central bank’s data-dependent approach amid offsetting risks from stronger growth and energy-driven inflation pressures.** The September 2 hold at 2.25% highlighted Q2 GDP growth of 3.3% alongside headline CPI near 3%, fueled by elevated oil prices from Middle East developments, while underlying measures stayed contained and trade tensions with the U.S. added growth uncertainty. Overnight index swap pricing shows a modest tightening bias, but the 68.2% probability of no change versus 31.9% for a 25-basis-point hike indicates markets see limited near-term conviction for immediate action ahead of the Monetary Policy Report and fresh forecasts. Recent labor data and the August CPI release due today will likely influence whether the balance tilts toward a hike or extended pause.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$73,903Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision reflect trader focus on the central bank’s data-dependent approach amid offsetting risks from stronger growth and energy-driven inflation pressures.** The September 2 hold at 2.25% highlighted Q2 GDP growth of 3.3% alongside headline CPI near 3%, fueled by elevated oil prices from Middle East developments, while underlying measures stayed contained and trade tensions with the U.S. added growth uncertainty. Overnight index swap pricing shows a modest tightening bias, but the 68.2% probability of no change versus 31.9% for a 25-basis-point hike indicates markets see limited near-term conviction for immediate action ahead of the Monetary Policy Report and fresh forecasts. Recent labor data and the August CPI release due today will likely influence whether the balance tilts toward a hike or extended pause.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Обсяг
$73,903Дата завершення
Oct 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds for the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision reflect trader focus on the central bank’s data-dependent approach amid offsetting risks from stronger growth and energy-driven inflation pressures.** The September 2 hold at 2.25% highlighted Q2 GDP growth of 3.3% alongside headline CPI near 3%, fueled by elevated oil prices from Middle East developments, while underlying measures stayed contained and trade tensions with the U.S. added growth uncertainty. Overnight index swap pricing shows a modest tightening bias, but the 68.2% probability of no change versus 31.9% for a 25-basis-point hike indicates markets see limited near-term conviction for immediate action ahead of the Monetary Policy Report and fresh forecasts. Recent labor data and the August CPI release due today will likely influence whether the balance tilts toward a hike or extended pause.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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