Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, including repeated projectile and UAV strikes on vessels, Iranian route enforcement, and sanctions exposure, have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely depressed through late August 2026. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels; Kpler, JMIC, and UKMTO data show August levels averaging roughly 5–15 transits per day, with most movements either dark, Iranian-unilateral, or U.S.-facilitated amid high war-risk premiums and operator caution. This environment underpins the 99.6% market-implied probability of an end-August daily average in the 0–20 range. A credible de-escalation yielding verified safe corridors or a sharp drop in incidents could lift volumes, though recent attacks and the entrenched stalemate make rapid normalization improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-20 99.6%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,424 Обс.
$110,424 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
100%
20-40
<1%
40-60
<1%
60-80
<1%
80+
<1%
0-20 99.6%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,424 Обс.
$110,424 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
$61,187 Обс.
100%
20-40
$14,553 Обс.
<1%
40-60
$14,967 Обс.
<1%
60-80
$11,339 Обс.
<1%
80+
$8,378 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, including repeated projectile and UAV strikes on vessels, Iranian route enforcement, and sanctions exposure, have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely depressed through late August 2026. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels; Kpler, JMIC, and UKMTO data show August levels averaging roughly 5–15 transits per day, with most movements either dark, Iranian-unilateral, or U.S.-facilitated amid high war-risk premiums and operator caution. This environment underpins the 99.6% market-implied probability of an end-August daily average in the 0–20 range. A credible de-escalation yielding verified safe corridors or a sharp drop in incidents could lift volumes, though recent attacks and the entrenched stalemate make rapid normalization improbable.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$110,424Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, including repeated projectile and UAV strikes on vessels, Iranian route enforcement, and sanctions exposure, have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely depressed through late August 2026. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels; Kpler, JMIC, and UKMTO data show August levels averaging roughly 5–15 transits per day, with most movements either dark, Iranian-unilateral, or U.S.-facilitated amid high war-risk premiums and operator caution. This environment underpins the 99.6% market-implied probability of an end-August daily average in the 0–20 range. A credible de-escalation yielding verified safe corridors or a sharp drop in incidents could lift volumes, though recent attacks and the entrenched stalemate make rapid normalization improbable.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Обсяг
$110,424Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict, including repeated projectile and UAV strikes on vessels, Iranian route enforcement, and sanctions exposure, have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely depressed through late August 2026. Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100 vessels; Kpler, JMIC, and UKMTO data show August levels averaging roughly 5–15 transits per day, with most movements either dark, Iranian-unilateral, or U.S.-facilitated amid high war-risk premiums and operator caution. This environment underpins the 99.6% market-implied probability of an end-August daily average in the 0–20 range. A credible de-escalation yielding verified safe corridors or a sharp drop in incidents could lift volumes, though recent attacks and the entrenched stalemate make rapid normalization improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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