**Rising gasoline prices and a rebound in energy costs are anchoring trader expectations for a 0.4% month-over-month August CPI print, which commands a 48.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Following July’s soft 0.1% headline increase, consensus forecasts and the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast point to a 0.36–0.4% gain, driven by higher fuel and food prices that have not yet fully transmitted to core measures. The 0.3% outcome at 35% reflects the risk of a more contained energy pass-through, while the 13% chance assigned to ≥0.5% captures upside surprises from persistent services or shelter components. With the September 11 BLS release imminent, markets are pricing in this near-term data as a key input for FOMC deliberations on the policy rate path amid still-elevated year-over-year readings near 3.4%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.4% 49%
0.3% 35%
≥0.5% 13%
0.2% 5.5%
$36,725 Обс.
$36,725 Обс.
Sep 10, 2026
≤-0.3%
<1%
-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
1%
0.1%
2%
0.2%
5%
0.3%
35%
0.4%
49%
≥0.5%
13%
0.4% 49%
0.3% 35%
≥0.5% 13%
0.2% 5.5%
$36,725 Обс.
$36,725 Обс.
Sep 10, 2026
≤-0.3%
$1,189 Обс.
<1%
-0.2%
$785 Обс.
<1%
-0.1%
$914 Обс.
<1%
0.0%
$1,420 Обс.
1%
0.1%
$1,532 Обс.
2%
0.2%
$2,578 Обс.
5%
0.3%
$4,197 Обс.
35%
0.4%
$9,814 Обс.
49%
≥0.5%
$14,295 Обс.
13%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Rising gasoline prices and a rebound in energy costs are anchoring trader expectations for a 0.4% month-over-month August CPI print, which commands a 48.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Following July’s soft 0.1% headline increase, consensus forecasts and the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast point to a 0.36–0.4% gain, driven by higher fuel and food prices that have not yet fully transmitted to core measures. The 0.3% outcome at 35% reflects the risk of a more contained energy pass-through, while the 13% chance assigned to ≥0.5% captures upside surprises from persistent services or shelter components. With the September 11 BLS release imminent, markets are pricing in this near-term data as a key input for FOMC deliberations on the policy rate path amid still-elevated year-over-year readings near 3.4%.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Обсяг
$36,725Дата завершення
Sep 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Rising gasoline prices and a rebound in energy costs are anchoring trader expectations for a 0.4% month-over-month August CPI print, which commands a 48.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Following July’s soft 0.1% headline increase, consensus forecasts and the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast point to a 0.36–0.4% gain, driven by higher fuel and food prices that have not yet fully transmitted to core measures. The 0.3% outcome at 35% reflects the risk of a more contained energy pass-through, while the 13% chance assigned to ≥0.5% captures upside surprises from persistent services or shelter components. With the September 11 BLS release imminent, markets are pricing in this near-term data as a key input for FOMC deliberations on the policy rate path amid still-elevated year-over-year readings near 3.4%.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Обсяг
$36,725Дата завершення
Sep 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Rising gasoline prices and a rebound in energy costs are anchoring trader expectations for a 0.4% month-over-month August CPI print, which commands a 48.5% implied probability on Polymarket.** Following July’s soft 0.1% headline increase, consensus forecasts and the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast point to a 0.36–0.4% gain, driven by higher fuel and food prices that have not yet fully transmitted to core measures. The 0.3% outcome at 35% reflects the risk of a more contained energy pass-through, while the 13% chance assigned to ≥0.5% captures upside surprises from persistent services or shelter components. With the September 11 BLS release imminent, markets are pricing in this near-term data as a key input for FOMC deliberations on the policy rate path amid still-elevated year-over-year readings near 3.4%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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