Recent outages in OpenAI’s Codex coding service have shaped trader views, with a full 56-minute disruption on September 25 affecting the web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension, followed by multi-hour degraded performance on September 29 and again on October 7 when the Dot feature failed to create threads. These incidents, part of hundreds of OpenAI issues tracked since early 2025, reflect ongoing scaling challenges for the large language model powering developer workflows. With roughly three months left in 2026 and no announced infrastructure changes, the 75.5% market-implied odds for another outage capture expectations that similar technical or capacity-related events will recur before year-end.