President Trump's April 3, 2026, FY2027 budget proposal requested $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary as a state-of-the-art secure facility under the Bureau of Prisons, but no congressional appropriations or facility transfer from the National Park Service have advanced by mid-May. Traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers including crumbling infrastructure requiring years of renovation, historical closure in 1963 due to tripled operating costs from island isolation, environmental reviews, and opposition from California officials like Governor Newsom and former Speaker Pelosi citing fiscal waste. A temporary April dock repair for tourism was unrelated, with no recent catalysts or scheduled hearings to shift odds before year-end resolution upon housing an inmate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 3, 2026, FY2027 budget proposal requested $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary as a state-of-the-art secure facility under the Bureau of Prisons, but no congressional appropriations or facility transfer from the National Park Service have advanced by mid-May. Traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers including crumbling infrastructure requiring years of renovation, historical closure in 1963 due to tripled operating costs from island isolation, environmental reviews, and opposition from California officials like Governor Newsom and former Speaker Pelosi citing fiscal waste. A temporary April dock repair for tourism was unrelated, with no recent catalysts or scheduled hearings to shift odds before year-end resolution upon housing an inmate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,151Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's April 3, 2026, FY2027 budget proposal requested $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary as a state-of-the-art secure facility under the Bureau of Prisons, but no congressional appropriations or facility transfer from the National Park Service have advanced by mid-May. Traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers including crumbling infrastructure requiring years of renovation, historical closure in 1963 due to tripled operating costs from island isolation, environmental reviews, and opposition from California officials like Governor Newsom and former Speaker Pelosi citing fiscal waste. A temporary April dock repair for tourism was unrelated, with no recent catalysts or scheduled hearings to shift odds before year-end resolution upon housing an inmate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,151Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 3, 2026, FY2027 budget proposal requested $152 million to initiate rebuilding Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary as a state-of-the-art secure facility under the Bureau of Prisons, but no congressional appropriations or facility transfer from the National Park Service have advanced by mid-May. Traders' 93% implied probability on "No" reflects formidable barriers including crumbling infrastructure requiring years of renovation, historical closure in 1963 due to tripled operating costs from island isolation, environmental reviews, and opposition from California officials like Governor Newsom and former Speaker Pelosi citing fiscal waste. A temporary April dock repair for tourism was unrelated, with no recent catalysts or scheduled hearings to shift odds before year-end resolution upon housing an inmate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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