Mary Peltola’s commanding lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 6–9 point margin of victory. With nearly all ballots counted by late August, the former U.S. representative held roughly 49.5 percent to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4 percent, a gap that widened modestly as absentee ballots were added and remained stable through final updates. Low single-digit support for a same-named Republican challenger and other minor candidates limited vote fragmentation, while Peltola’s stronger first-choice performance among the field of 16 contenders aligned with pre-election polling trends favoring her over the incumbent. Final certification and any residual ballot adjustments could still occur, though historical patterns and the absence of major late shifts make significant movement outside the 6–9 point range unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPeltola 6–9% 100.0%
Peltola 15%+ <1%
Peltola 12–15% <1%
Peltola 9–12% <1%
$23,457 Обс.
$23,457 Обс.
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
No
Peltola 12–15%
No
Peltola 9–12%
No
Peltola 6–9%
Yes
Peltola 3–6%
No
Peltola <3%
No
Sullivan <3%
No
Sullivan 3–6%
No
Sullivan 6–9%
No
Sullivan 9–12%
No
Sullivan 12%+
No
Peltola 6–9% 100.0%
Peltola 15%+ <1%
Peltola 12–15% <1%
Peltola 9–12% <1%
$23,457 Обс.
$23,457 Обс.
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
$512 Обс.
No
Peltola 12–15%
$525 Обс.
No
Peltola 9–12%
$1,727 Обс.
No
Peltola 6–9%
$3,534 Обс.
Yes
Peltola 3–6%
$12,363 Обс.
No
Peltola <3%
$1,363 Обс.
No
Sullivan <3%
$809 Обс.
No
Sullivan 3–6%
$1,137 Обс.
No
Sullivan 6–9%
$657 Обс.
No
Sullivan 9–12%
$387 Обс.
No
Sullivan 12%+
$442 Обс.
No
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Mary Peltola’s commanding lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 6–9 point margin of victory. With nearly all ballots counted by late August, the former U.S. representative held roughly 49.5 percent to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4 percent, a gap that widened modestly as absentee ballots were added and remained stable through final updates. Low single-digit support for a same-named Republican challenger and other minor candidates limited vote fragmentation, while Peltola’s stronger first-choice performance among the field of 16 contenders aligned with pre-election polling trends favoring her over the incumbent. Final certification and any residual ballot adjustments could still occur, though historical patterns and the absence of major late shifts make significant movement outside the 6–9 point range unlikely.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$23,457Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Mary Peltola’s commanding lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 6–9 point margin of victory. With nearly all ballots counted by late August, the former U.S. representative held roughly 49.5 percent to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4 percent, a gap that widened modestly as absentee ballots were added and remained stable through final updates. Low single-digit support for a same-named Republican challenger and other minor candidates limited vote fragmentation, while Peltola’s stronger first-choice performance among the field of 16 contenders aligned with pre-election polling trends favoring her over the incumbent. Final certification and any residual ballot adjustments could still occur, though historical patterns and the absence of major late shifts make significant movement outside the 6–9 point range unlikely.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Обсяг
$23,457Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Mary Peltola’s commanding lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 6–9 point margin of victory. With nearly all ballots counted by late August, the former U.S. representative held roughly 49.5 percent to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4 percent, a gap that widened modestly as absentee ballots were added and remained stable through final updates. Low single-digit support for a same-named Republican challenger and other minor candidates limited vote fragmentation, while Peltola’s stronger first-choice performance among the field of 16 contenders aligned with pre-election polling trends favoring her over the incumbent. Final certification and any residual ballot adjustments could still occur, though historical patterns and the absence of major late shifts make significant movement outside the 6–9 point range unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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