South Africa has seized early control of AFCON 2027 Group D qualifying through two decisive victories, including a 2-1 win over Guinea and a 5-0 rout of Eritrea, establishing a six-point cushion with a +6 goal difference after matchday two. These results align with Bafana Bafana’s stronger recent form and squad depth under Pitso Mosimane, driving the 72% implied probability traders assign to them claiming the group’s lone available finals berth. Guinea sits second on three points after a narrow win against Kenya but trails significantly, reflected in its 26% pricing. Kenya and Eritrea, hampered by draws and heavy defeats, trail further at 3% and 0.5%, respectively, with remaining fixtures offering limited paths to close the gap.