Recent model releases have tightened the race for second place among frontier AI labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 all shipping in early September and posting strong results on coding, agentic, and benchmark suites. Trader consensus reflects this parity, as no single lab has pulled decisively ahead on combined capability, cost, and adoption metrics. Differentiators include Anthropic’s edge in verifiable coding agents and safety frameworks, OpenAI’s breadth in computer-use and cybersecurity tasks, Google’s speed and integration advantages, and Meta’s open-weight momentum plus competitive pricing. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot continue closing the gap via high-performing open models, while xAI’s imminent Grok 4.7 update and potential late-October announcements from other labs remain key swing factors through the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
Meta 32%
Google 25%
Anthropic 22%
OpenAI 19%
$23,278 Обс.
$23,278 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
32%
25%
Anthropic
22%
OpenAI
19%
Z.ai
7%
Alibaba
6%
ByteDance
5%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 32%
Google 25%
Anthropic 22%
OpenAI 19%
$23,278 Обс.
$23,278 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$5,131 Обс.
32%
$6,465 Обс.
25%
Anthropic
$993 Обс.
22%
OpenAI
$2,052 Обс.
19%
Z.ai
$493 Обс.
7%
Alibaba
$571 Обс.
6%
ByteDance
$655 Обс.
5%
SpaceXAI
$498 Обс.
1%
Moonshot
$501 Обс.
1%
DeepSeek
$483 Обс.
1%
Baidu
$463 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$512 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$553 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$530 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$535 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$512 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$458 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$421 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$470 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$464 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have tightened the race for second place among frontier AI labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 all shipping in early September and posting strong results on coding, agentic, and benchmark suites. Trader consensus reflects this parity, as no single lab has pulled decisively ahead on combined capability, cost, and adoption metrics. Differentiators include Anthropic’s edge in verifiable coding agents and safety frameworks, OpenAI’s breadth in computer-use and cybersecurity tasks, Google’s speed and integration advantages, and Meta’s open-weight momentum plus competitive pricing. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot continue closing the gap via high-performing open models, while xAI’s imminent Grok 4.7 update and potential late-October announcements from other labs remain key swing factors through the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$23,278Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have tightened the race for second place among frontier AI labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 all shipping in early September and posting strong results on coding, agentic, and benchmark suites. Trader consensus reflects this parity, as no single lab has pulled decisively ahead on combined capability, cost, and adoption metrics. Differentiators include Anthropic’s edge in verifiable coding agents and safety frameworks, OpenAI’s breadth in computer-use and cybersecurity tasks, Google’s speed and integration advantages, and Meta’s open-weight momentum plus competitive pricing. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot continue closing the gap via high-performing open models, while xAI’s imminent Grok 4.7 update and potential late-October announcements from other labs remain key swing factors through the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$23,278Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have tightened the race for second place among frontier AI labs, with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 all shipping in early September and posting strong results on coding, agentic, and benchmark suites. Trader consensus reflects this parity, as no single lab has pulled decisively ahead on combined capability, cost, and adoption metrics. Differentiators include Anthropic’s edge in verifiable coding agents and safety frameworks, OpenAI’s breadth in computer-use and cybersecurity tasks, Google’s speed and integration advantages, and Meta’s open-weight momentum plus competitive pricing. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot continue closing the gap via high-performing open models, while xAI’s imminent Grok 4.7 update and potential late-October announcements from other labs remain key swing factors through the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання