Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including September 2026 captures of Mokha port and Perim Island, have heightened attack risks and prompted selective rerouting, yet IMF PortWatch data show persistent daily transits averaging around 30 vessels and 9 tankers through early October—well above zero despite a 26% tanker decline from prior baselines. Renewed Saudi-backed counteroffensives in early October introduced fluid battlefield claims but no verified full closure, while container operators continue Cape of Good Hope diversions adding 10–14 days and roughly $1 million per voyage. Elevated war-risk insurance and freight rates reflect these dynamics, though non-Saudi-linked tankers and bulk carriers sustain flows. Upcoming military or diplomatic shifts could alter risk assessments, but current volumes indicate strong barriers to a complete daily shutdown.