Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain expectations that Ukraine will not recapture any Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, driven by Russia's entrenched fortifications on the peninsula since 2014 annexation, extensive air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet presence despite Ukrainian degradation efforts. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes, including on a Nebo-SVU radar near Crimea on April 15 and a key supply ferry disrupting Kerch Bridge alternatives around April 11, have isolated Russian logistics but yielded no ground advances per ISW maps, with front lines remaining over 120 km distant amid stalled Russian offensives in March. Only extraordinary developments—like a southern breakthrough to Zaporizhzhia access, amphibious escalation with Western long-range strikes, or Russian withdrawal—could shift odds in the 10-week window.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiUkrayna 30 Haziran 2026 'ya kadar Kırım topraklarını geri alacak mı?
Ukrayna 30 Haziran 2026 'ya kadar Kırım topraklarını geri alacak mı?
Evet
$61,921 Hac.
$61,921 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
Evet
$61,921 Hac.
$61,921 Hac.
30 Haz 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain expectations that Ukraine will not recapture any Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, driven by Russia's entrenched fortifications on the peninsula since 2014 annexation, extensive air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet presence despite Ukrainian degradation efforts. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes, including on a Nebo-SVU radar near Crimea on April 15 and a key supply ferry disrupting Kerch Bridge alternatives around April 11, have isolated Russian logistics but yielded no ground advances per ISW maps, with front lines remaining over 120 km distant amid stalled Russian offensives in March. Only extraordinary developments—like a southern breakthrough to Zaporizhzhia access, amphibious escalation with Western long-range strikes, or Russian withdrawal—could shift odds in the 10-week window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Piyasa Açıldı: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Hacim
$61,921Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain expectations that Ukraine will not recapture any Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, driven by Russia's entrenched fortifications on the peninsula since 2014 annexation, extensive air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet presence despite Ukrainian degradation efforts. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes, including on a Nebo-SVU radar near Crimea on April 15 and a key supply ferry disrupting Kerch Bridge alternatives around April 11, have isolated Russian logistics but yielded no ground advances per ISW maps, with front lines remaining over 120 km distant amid stalled Russian offensives in March. Only extraordinary developments—like a southern breakthrough to Zaporizhzhia access, amphibious escalation with Western long-range strikes, or Russian withdrawal—could shift odds in the 10-week window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Hacim
$61,921Bitiş Tarihi
30 Haz 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain expectations that Ukraine will not recapture any Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, driven by Russia's entrenched fortifications on the peninsula since 2014 annexation, extensive air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet presence despite Ukrainian degradation efforts. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes, including on a Nebo-SVU radar near Crimea on April 15 and a key supply ferry disrupting Kerch Bridge alternatives around April 11, have isolated Russian logistics but yielded no ground advances per ISW maps, with front lines remaining over 120 km distant amid stalled Russian offensives in March. Only extraordinary developments—like a southern breakthrough to Zaporizhzhia access, amphibious escalation with Western long-range strikes, or Russian withdrawal—could shift odds in the 10-week window.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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