In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for US House seats, all incumbents seeking renomination—spanning districts like the 1st through 14th—secured easy victories against weak or no challengers, reflecting entrenched incumbency advantages and Democratic Party infrastructure support from groups like the DCCC. This outcome, certified shortly after amid low turnout and minimal intra-party strife, drives the 99.9% trader consensus on "No," aligning with historical base rates where House incumbents lose primaries in under 5% of cases. Realistic shifts remain improbable but could stem from rare post-election challenges, such as recounts in narrowly contested races or legal disputes over ballot eligibility, pending final statewide canvass.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$797 Hac.
$797 Hac.
17 Mar 2026
$797 Hac.
$797 Hac.
17 Mar 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for US House seats, all incumbents seeking renomination—spanning districts like the 1st through 14th—secured easy victories against weak or no challengers, reflecting entrenched incumbency advantages and Democratic Party infrastructure support from groups like the DCCC. This outcome, certified shortly after amid low turnout and minimal intra-party strife, drives the 99.9% trader consensus on "No," aligning with historical base rates where House incumbents lose primaries in under 5% of cases. Realistic shifts remain improbable but could stem from rare post-election challenges, such as recounts in narrowly contested races or legal disputes over ballot eligibility, pending final statewide canvass.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Hacim
$797Bitiş Tarihi
17 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for US House seats, all incumbents seeking renomination—spanning districts like the 1st through 14th—secured easy victories against weak or no challengers, reflecting entrenched incumbency advantages and Democratic Party infrastructure support from groups like the DCCC. This outcome, certified shortly after amid low turnout and minimal intra-party strife, drives the 99.9% trader consensus on "No," aligning with historical base rates where House incumbents lose primaries in under 5% of cases. Realistic shifts remain improbable but could stem from rare post-election challenges, such as recounts in narrowly contested races or legal disputes over ballot eligibility, pending final statewide canvass.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$797Bitiş Tarihi
17 Mar 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for US House seats, all incumbents seeking renomination—spanning districts like the 1st through 14th—secured easy victories against weak or no challengers, reflecting entrenched incumbency advantages and Democratic Party infrastructure support from groups like the DCCC. This outcome, certified shortly after amid low turnout and minimal intra-party strife, drives the 99.9% trader consensus on "No," aligning with historical base rates where House incumbents lose primaries in under 5% of cases. Realistic shifts remain improbable but could stem from rare post-election challenges, such as recounts in narrowly contested races or legal disputes over ballot eligibility, pending final statewide canvass.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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