Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and historical data since 1851 shows zero hurricane landfalls on the continental U.S. in May, underscoring the climatological rarity amid currently unfavorable conditions like weak La Niña influences and below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University. Realistic challenges include an unexpected subtropical disturbance rapidly intensifying in late May, though model consensus shows low risk ahead of NHC's next updates.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiBir kasırga 31 Mayıs'a kadar ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?
Bir kasırga 31 Mayıs'a kadar ABD'de karaya çıkacak mı?
Evet
$14,313 Hac.
$14,313 Hac.
31 May 2026
Evet
$14,313 Hac.
$14,313 Hac.
31 May 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and historical data since 1851 shows zero hurricane landfalls on the continental U.S. in May, underscoring the climatological rarity amid currently unfavorable conditions like weak La Niña influences and below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University. Realistic challenges include an unexpected subtropical disturbance rapidly intensifying in late May, though model consensus shows low risk ahead of NHC's next updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Hacim
$14,313Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and historical data since 1851 shows zero hurricane landfalls on the continental U.S. in May, underscoring the climatological rarity amid currently unfavorable conditions like weak La Niña influences and below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University. Realistic challenges include an unexpected subtropical disturbance rapidly intensifying in late May, though model consensus shows low risk ahead of NHC's next updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Hacim
$14,313Bitiş Tarihi
31 May 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92.5% implied probability for no U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins as of mid-April 2026, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming May 15. Official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and historical data since 1851 shows zero hurricane landfalls on the continental U.S. in May, underscoring the climatological rarity amid currently unfavorable conditions like weak La Niña influences and below-normal seasonal forecasts from Colorado State University. Realistic challenges include an unexpected subtropical disturbance rapidly intensifying in late May, though model consensus shows low risk ahead of NHC's next updates.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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