Recent reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, the court's oldest members at 76 and 78, confirm neither plans to retire in 2026, with Alito hiring clerks for the next term and cooling prior speculation fueled by President Trump's public urging and prepared shortlist. No health issues or announcements have emerged among the nine justices since January, when turnover rumors peaked ahead of the 2026 midterms. Liberal justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson face no retirement pressure given their younger ages and ideological alignment. Historical patterns show rare unannounced departures, supporting trader consensus implying a 57.5% probability of no Supreme Court vacancy this year absent late-breaking developments like health events or sudden resignations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiYENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
YENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, the court's oldest members at 76 and 78, confirm neither plans to retire in 2026, with Alito hiring clerks for the next term and cooling prior speculation fueled by President Trump's public urging and prepared shortlist. No health issues or announcements have emerged among the nine justices since January, when turnover rumors peaked ahead of the 2026 midterms. Liberal justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson face no retirement pressure given their younger ages and ideological alignment. Historical patterns show rare unannounced departures, supporting trader consensus implying a 57.5% probability of no Supreme Court vacancy this year absent late-breaking developments like health events or sudden resignations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Hacim
$4,288Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, the court's oldest members at 76 and 78, confirm neither plans to retire in 2026, with Alito hiring clerks for the next term and cooling prior speculation fueled by President Trump's public urging and prepared shortlist. No health issues or announcements have emerged among the nine justices since January, when turnover rumors peaked ahead of the 2026 midterms. Liberal justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson face no retirement pressure given their younger ages and ideological alignment. Historical patterns show rare unannounced departures, supporting trader consensus implying a 57.5% probability of no Supreme Court vacancy this year absent late-breaking developments like health events or sudden resignations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$4,288Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, the court's oldest members at 76 and 78, confirm neither plans to retire in 2026, with Alito hiring clerks for the next term and cooling prior speculation fueled by President Trump's public urging and prepared shortlist. No health issues or announcements have emerged among the nine justices since January, when turnover rumors peaked ahead of the 2026 midterms. Liberal justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson face no retirement pressure given their younger ages and ideological alignment. Historical patterns show rare unannounced departures, supporting trader consensus implying a 57.5% probability of no Supreme Court vacancy this year absent late-breaking developments like health events or sudden resignations.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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