Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst through mid-April per NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data. These extreme events remain historically rare—U.S. Category 5 landfalls occur roughly once per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while VEI 6+ eruptions average every 20-50 years—bolstered by current ENSO-neutral conditions forecasting an average-to-below-average Atlantic hurricane season per NOAA outlooks. Q1 2026 saw elevated fireballs but none meeting the energy threshold. Odds could shift with June's hurricane season onset or unforeseen seismic/volcanic activity, tracked via USGS real-time monitoring.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da Doğal Afet mi?
2026 'da Doğal Afet mi?
Evet
$204,719 Hac.
$204,719 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$204,719 Hac.
$204,719 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst through mid-April per NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data. These extreme events remain historically rare—U.S. Category 5 landfalls occur roughly once per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while VEI 6+ eruptions average every 20-50 years—bolstered by current ENSO-neutral conditions forecasting an average-to-below-average Atlantic hurricane season per NOAA outlooks. Q1 2026 saw elevated fireballs but none meeting the energy threshold. Odds could shift with June's hurricane season onset or unforeseen seismic/volcanic activity, tracked via USGS real-time monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Hacim
$204,719Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst through mid-April per NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data. These extreme events remain historically rare—U.S. Category 5 landfalls occur roughly once per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while VEI 6+ eruptions average every 20-50 years—bolstered by current ENSO-neutral conditions forecasting an average-to-below-average Atlantic hurricane season per NOAA outlooks. Q1 2026 saw elevated fireballs but none meeting the energy threshold. Odds could shift with June's hurricane season onset or unforeseen seismic/volcanic activity, tracked via USGS real-time monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Hacim
$204,719Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst through mid-April per NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data. These extreme events remain historically rare—U.S. Category 5 landfalls occur roughly once per decade on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while VEI 6+ eruptions average every 20-50 years—bolstered by current ENSO-neutral conditions forecasting an average-to-below-average Atlantic hurricane season per NOAA outlooks. Q1 2026 saw elevated fireballs but none meeting the energy threshold. Odds could shift with June's hurricane season onset or unforeseen seismic/volcanic activity, tracked via USGS real-time monitoring.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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