France's summer 2026 delivered an unprecedented heatwave season that locked in the record early. Météo-France and Environment Minister Monique Barbut confirmed in early September that the June-August average reached 24°C, surpassing the 2003 benchmark by nearly a full degree amid three intense heatwaves totaling 53 days—the longest and most frequent on record. Persistent anticyclonic conditions, record 40°C+ readings across wide areas, and supporting data from Copernicus for Western Europe cemented the outcome well before October. Traders priced the market at 99.4% Yes because official meteorological tallies left virtually no room for reversal, though an improbable late data revision or redefined baseline could theoretically alter the final classification.