The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike on September 16—the first since 2023—drove sentiment for the S&P 500’s (SPX) weekly range amid sticky August CPI and PPI prints showing 3.4% and 5.4% year-over-year inflation, respectively. Elevated oil prices near $105–110 per barrel on Middle East supply risks pushed 10-year Treasury yields toward 5%, pressuring valuations while traders weighed follow-on tightening odds at the October FOMC. SPX opened the week near 7,620, dipped to 7,552 mid-week, then recovered to close Thursday at 7,638 before triple-witching volatility on September 18 left the index fluctuating around 7,630. Market-implied odds reflected uncertainty over earnings growth sustainability and AI-related slowdown signals, with the week’s net performance underscoring sensitivity to macro data releases and energy-driven inflation expectations.