The Burnham ministry, formed on 20 July 2026 after Andy Burnham’s leadership victory and Keir Starmer’s resignation, has operated for under two months with no confirmed departures to date. Trader consensus on “Other” at 50% reflects this short timeframe and the absence of acute public rifts or policy clashes capable of forcing an early exit. John Healey’s 13% price draws from his prior resignation as defence secretary in June 2026 over spending disputes, now as chancellor, while Miatta Fahnbulleh and Alex Norris sit at 10% and 9% amid their recent elevation to cabinet from the 2024 intake. Remaining probabilities for figures such as Angela Rayner and Stephen Kinnock track established profiles, historical reshuffle patterns, and the absence of scheduled votes or summits likely to trigger immediate changes before the next major parliamentary session.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateJohn Healey 14%
Miatta Fahnbulleh 10.3%
Alex Norris 8.6%
Stephen Kinnock 4.5%
$100,133 Vol.
$100,133 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
John Healey
14%
Miatta Fahnbulleh
10%
Alex Norris
9%
Stephen Kinnock
5%
Alan Campbell
4%
Angela Rayner
4%
Shabana Mahmood
4%
Yvette Cooper
4%
Lucy Powell
4%
Chris Bryant
4%
Wes Streeting
4%
Bridget Phillipson
3%
Angela Smith
3%
Pat McFadden
3%
Douglas Alexander
3%
Heidi Alexander
3%
Louise Haigh
3%
Lisa Nandy
3%
Jonathan Reynolds
2%
Anneliese Midgley
2%
Angela Eagle
2%
Ed Miliband
2%
John Healey 14%
Miatta Fahnbulleh 10.3%
Alex Norris 8.6%
Stephen Kinnock 4.5%
$100,133 Vol.
$100,133 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
John Healey
$21,826 Vol.
14%
Miatta Fahnbulleh
$5,524 Vol.
10%
Alex Norris
$1,567 Vol.
9%
Stephen Kinnock
$4,459 Vol.
5%
Alan Campbell
$3,768 Vol.
4%
Angela Rayner
$789 Vol.
4%
Shabana Mahmood
$20,066 Vol.
4%
Yvette Cooper
$1,248 Vol.
4%
Lucy Powell
$3,086 Vol.
4%
Chris Bryant
$11,426 Vol.
4%
Wes Streeting
$349 Vol.
4%
Bridget Phillipson
$3,915 Vol.
3%
Angela Smith
$1,532 Vol.
3%
Pat McFadden
$9,066 Vol.
3%
Douglas Alexander
$508 Vol.
3%
Heidi Alexander
$2,182 Vol.
3%
Louise Haigh
$302 Vol.
3%
Lisa Nandy
$579 Vol.
3%
Jonathan Reynolds
$1,202 Vol.
2%
Anneliese Midgley
$2,006 Vol.
2%
Angela Eagle
$3,678 Vol.
2%
Ed Miliband
$1,056 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Burnham ministry, formed on 20 July 2026 after Andy Burnham’s leadership victory and Keir Starmer’s resignation, has operated for under two months with no confirmed departures to date. Trader consensus on “Other” at 50% reflects this short timeframe and the absence of acute public rifts or policy clashes capable of forcing an early exit. John Healey’s 13% price draws from his prior resignation as defence secretary in June 2026 over spending disputes, now as chancellor, while Miatta Fahnbulleh and Alex Norris sit at 10% and 9% amid their recent elevation to cabinet from the 2024 intake. Remaining probabilities for figures such as Angela Rayner and Stephen Kinnock track established profiles, historical reshuffle patterns, and the absence of scheduled votes or summits likely to trigger immediate changes before the next major parliamentary session.
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 6, 2026, 5:28 AM ET
Volume
$100,133Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Aug 6, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Burnham ministry, formed on 20 July 2026 after Andy Burnham’s leadership victory and Keir Starmer’s resignation, has operated for under two months with no confirmed departures to date. Trader consensus on “Other” at 50% reflects this short timeframe and the absence of acute public rifts or policy clashes capable of forcing an early exit. John Healey’s 13% price draws from his prior resignation as defence secretary in June 2026 over spending disputes, now as chancellor, while Miatta Fahnbulleh and Alex Norris sit at 10% and 9% amid their recent elevation to cabinet from the 2024 intake. Remaining probabilities for figures such as Angela Rayner and Stephen Kinnock track established profiles, historical reshuffle patterns, and the absence of scheduled votes or summits likely to trigger immediate changes before the next major parliamentary session.
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$100,133Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Aug 6, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Burnham ministry, formed on 20 July 2026 after Andy Burnham’s leadership victory and Keir Starmer’s resignation, has operated for under two months with no confirmed departures to date. Trader consensus on “Other” at 50% reflects this short timeframe and the absence of acute public rifts or policy clashes capable of forcing an early exit. John Healey’s 13% price draws from his prior resignation as defence secretary in June 2026 over spending disputes, now as chancellor, while Miatta Fahnbulleh and Alex Norris sit at 10% and 9% amid their recent elevation to cabinet from the 2024 intake. Remaining probabilities for figures such as Angela Rayner and Stephen Kinnock track established profiles, historical reshuffle patterns, and the absence of scheduled votes or summits likely to trigger immediate changes before the next major parliamentary session.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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