Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June established it as one of 2026’s strongest debuts, second only to Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and ahead of titles like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and The Odyssey. This performance, paired with Pixar’s franchise momentum and family-audience draw, drives the 95% market-implied probability that it finishes third overall. Remaining 2026 releases, including Avengers: Doomsday in December, represent the main upset risk if any post-September tentpole exceeds Toy Story 5’s benchmark, though current tracking and historical patterns make such a shift unlikely. Traders are pricing in the confirmed summer results and the slim calendar window for additional record breakers.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.2%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.3%
$30,477 Vol.
$30,477 Vol.
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.2%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.3%
$30,477 Vol.
$30,477 Vol.
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June established it as one of 2026’s strongest debuts, second only to Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and ahead of titles like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and The Odyssey. This performance, paired with Pixar’s franchise momentum and family-audience draw, drives the 95% market-implied probability that it finishes third overall. Remaining 2026 releases, including Avengers: Doomsday in December, represent the main upset risk if any post-September tentpole exceeds Toy Story 5’s benchmark, though current tracking and historical patterns make such a shift unlikely. Traders are pricing in the confirmed summer results and the slim calendar window for additional record breakers.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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