With leading contenders closely matched near 50% implied probability, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over which 2026 release will secure the second-highest domestic opening weekend behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million debut. Major summer tentpoles and holiday blockbusters like Avengers: Doomsday create a competitive field, while films such as Toy Story 5 and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping register as longshots amid dominant early performers like The Odyssey and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. December’s “Dunesday” doubleheader with Dune: Messiah stands as the key upcoming catalyst that could shift momentum and resolve the deadlock before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 47%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 46%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$107,634 Vol.
$107,634 Vol.
Avengers: Doomsday
47%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
46%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 47%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 46%
Dune: Messiah <1%
Toy Story 5 <1%
$107,634 Vol.
$107,634 Vol.
Avengers: Doomsday
47%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
46%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 23, 2026, 11:25 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With leading contenders closely matched near 50% implied probability, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over which 2026 release will secure the second-highest domestic opening weekend behind Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million debut. Major summer tentpoles and holiday blockbusters like Avengers: Doomsday create a competitive field, while films such as Toy Story 5 and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping register as longshots amid dominant early performers like The Odyssey and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. December’s “Dunesday” doubleheader with Dune: Messiah stands as the key upcoming catalyst that could shift momentum and resolve the deadlock before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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