**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and repeated breakdowns in de-escalation efforts keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to routine commercial shipping, with traffic at just 1–13 vessels per day versus a normal ~70–140, driving the 54.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal levels in 2026.** The waterway, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows, has seen severe disruption since Iran’s closure on February 28, 2026, following initial US-Israel strikes. A June memorandum of understanding briefly eased restrictions and allowed some transits, but attacks on commercial vessels in early July triggered renewed fighting, a US naval blockade, and prohibitive war-risk insurance premiums that continue to deter operators. Fresh incidents, including drone strikes on two UAE tankers on August 13, underscore the persistent risk environment and have kept volumes near standstill as global stockpiles draw down rapidly. Near-term months (September at 17.5%, October/November at 8.0% each) price in only modest odds of normalization because any reopening would require verifiable security guarantees and a durable ceasefire—conditions traders view as unlikely given Iran’s leverage-seeking behavior and the conflict’s history of repeated breakdowns. December (10.5%) edges higher on seasonal or diplomatic calendar factors, while August (1.9%) reflects the near-certainty of continued low activity through month-end. Market pricing aggregates real-capital bets on these macroeconomic and geopolitical forces rather than forecasts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNo Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 55%
September 17%
December 11%
October 8%
$289,477 Vol.
$289,477 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August
2%
September
17%
October
8%
November
8%
December
11%
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
55%
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 55%
September 17%
December 11%
October 8%
$289,477 Vol.
$289,477 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August
$44,786 Vol.
2%
September
$15,002 Vol.
17%
October
$9,012 Vol.
8%
November
$6,965 Vol.
8%
December
$15,603 Vol.
11%
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
$172,333 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and repeated breakdowns in de-escalation efforts keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to routine commercial shipping, with traffic at just 1–13 vessels per day versus a normal ~70–140, driving the 54.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal levels in 2026.**
The waterway, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows, has seen severe disruption since Iran’s closure on February 28, 2026, following initial US-Israel strikes. A June memorandum of understanding briefly eased restrictions and allowed some transits, but attacks on commercial vessels in early July triggered renewed fighting, a US naval blockade, and prohibitive war-risk insurance premiums that continue to deter operators. Fresh incidents, including drone strikes on two UAE tankers on August 13, underscore the persistent risk environment and have kept volumes near standstill as global stockpiles draw down rapidly.
Near-term months (September at 17.5%, October/November at 8.0% each) price in only modest odds of normalization because any reopening would require verifiable security guarantees and a durable ceasefire—conditions traders view as unlikely given Iran’s leverage-seeking behavior and the conflict’s history of repeated breakdowns. December (10.5%) edges higher on seasonal or diplomatic calendar factors, while August (1.9%) reflects the near-certainty of continued low activity through month-end. Market pricing aggregates real-capital bets on these macroeconomic and geopolitical forces rather than forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$289,477Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and repeated breakdowns in de-escalation efforts keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to routine commercial shipping, with traffic at just 1–13 vessels per day versus a normal ~70–140, driving the 54.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal levels in 2026.**
The waterway, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows, has seen severe disruption since Iran’s closure on February 28, 2026, following initial US-Israel strikes. A June memorandum of understanding briefly eased restrictions and allowed some transits, but attacks on commercial vessels in early July triggered renewed fighting, a US naval blockade, and prohibitive war-risk insurance premiums that continue to deter operators. Fresh incidents, including drone strikes on two UAE tankers on August 13, underscore the persistent risk environment and have kept volumes near standstill as global stockpiles draw down rapidly.
Near-term months (September at 17.5%, October/November at 8.0% each) price in only modest odds of normalization because any reopening would require verifiable security guarantees and a durable ceasefire—conditions traders view as unlikely given Iran’s leverage-seeking behavior and the conflict’s history of repeated breakdowns. December (10.5%) edges higher on seasonal or diplomatic calendar factors, while August (1.9%) reflects the near-certainty of continued low activity through month-end. Market pricing aggregates real-capital bets on these macroeconomic and geopolitical forces rather than forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published.
If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$289,477Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 8, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and repeated breakdowns in de-escalation efforts keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to routine commercial shipping, with traffic at just 1–13 vessels per day versus a normal ~70–140, driving the 54.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal levels in 2026.** The waterway, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows, has seen severe disruption since Iran’s closure on February 28, 2026, following initial US-Israel strikes. A June memorandum of understanding briefly eased restrictions and allowed some transits, but attacks on commercial vessels in early July triggered renewed fighting, a US naval blockade, and prohibitive war-risk insurance premiums that continue to deter operators. Fresh incidents, including drone strikes on two UAE tankers on August 13, underscore the persistent risk environment and have kept volumes near standstill as global stockpiles draw down rapidly. Near-term months (September at 17.5%, October/November at 8.0% each) price in only modest odds of normalization because any reopening would require verifiable security guarantees and a durable ceasefire—conditions traders view as unlikely given Iran’s leverage-seeking behavior and the conflict’s history of repeated breakdowns. December (10.5%) edges higher on seasonal or diplomatic calendar factors, while August (1.9%) reflects the near-certainty of continued low activity through month-end. Market pricing aggregates real-capital bets on these macroeconomic and geopolitical forces rather than forecasts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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