Traders assign Google an 88% implied probability of leading in text-to-video AI by end of September, reflecting strong consensus around its recent model releases and benchmark results that have outpaced rivals. Runway and Luma AI sit at roughly 4% each, while most other entrants, including OpenAI, Meta, and KlingAI, register below 1%. This positioning aligns with Google's demonstrated advances in generative video capabilities, competitive edge in scaling large models, and integration with existing AI infrastructure. With resolution imminent, any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next few weeks could still shift sentiment, though the current odds indicate limited expectation of major reversals.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
Google 88%
Luma AI 3.7%
Runway 2.9%
ByteDance 1.3%
$20,777 Vol.
$20,777 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
88%
Luma AI
4%
Runway
3%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Pixverse
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
1%
Pruna
1%
Kandinsky
1%
Lightricks
1%
Genmo AI
1%
Pika
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
KlingAI
<1%
Tencent
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Google 88%
Luma AI 3.7%
Runway 2.9%
ByteDance 1.3%
$20,777 Vol.
$20,777 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$13,546 Vol.
88%
Luma AI
$400 Vol.
4%
Runway
$547 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$982 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$645 Vol.
1%
Pixverse
$370 Vol.
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$365 Vol.
1%
Pruna
$399 Vol.
1%
Kandinsky
$370 Vol.
1%
Lightricks
$422 Vol.
1%
Genmo AI
$436 Vol.
1%
Pika
$453 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$378 Vol.
<1%
KlingAI
$413 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$350 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$246 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Google an 88% implied probability of leading in text-to-video AI by end of September, reflecting strong consensus around its recent model releases and benchmark results that have outpaced rivals. Runway and Luma AI sit at roughly 4% each, while most other entrants, including OpenAI, Meta, and KlingAI, register below 1%. This positioning aligns with Google's demonstrated advances in generative video capabilities, competitive edge in scaling large models, and integration with existing AI infrastructure. With resolution imminent, any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next few weeks could still shift sentiment, though the current odds indicate limited expectation of major reversals.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$20,777Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Google an 88% implied probability of leading in text-to-video AI by end of September, reflecting strong consensus around its recent model releases and benchmark results that have outpaced rivals. Runway and Luma AI sit at roughly 4% each, while most other entrants, including OpenAI, Meta, and KlingAI, register below 1%. This positioning aligns with Google's demonstrated advances in generative video capabilities, competitive edge in scaling large models, and integration with existing AI infrastructure. With resolution imminent, any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next few weeks could still shift sentiment, though the current odds indicate limited expectation of major reversals.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$20,777Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Google an 88% implied probability of leading in text-to-video AI by end of September, reflecting strong consensus around its recent model releases and benchmark results that have outpaced rivals. Runway and Luma AI sit at roughly 4% each, while most other entrants, including OpenAI, Meta, and KlingAI, register below 1%. This positioning aligns with Google's demonstrated advances in generative video capabilities, competitive edge in scaling large models, and integration with existing AI infrastructure. With resolution imminent, any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations in the next few weeks could still shift sentiment, though the current odds indicate limited expectation of major reversals.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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