Anthropic holds an 84.5% implied probability of topping LiveBench overall by end of October 2026, driven by Claude Fable 5.1's leading scores around 83-84% in recent verified snapshots across reasoning, coding, and instruction-following categories. This edge stems from consistent frontier gains in Anthropic's latest closed models, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 variants that sit 1-3 points behind on the same dynamic benchmark. Traders see limited near-term disruption, as no major competing releases from Google, Meta, or others are scheduled before the resolution window, while lower-probability names like DeepSeek or Moonshot trail significantly on objective metrics. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on Anthropic's current technical lead amid rapid but incremental AI progress.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 9%
StepFun <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$20,660 Vol.
$20,660 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
85%
OpenAI
9%
StepFun
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 9%
StepFun <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$20,660 Vol.
$20,660 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,046 Vol.
85%
OpenAI
$2,948 Vol.
9%
StepFun
$445 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$443 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$435 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$492 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$465 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$498 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$471 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$433 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$386 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$481 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$481 Vol.
<1%
$411 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$494 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$492 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$445 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$445 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$431 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 84.5% implied probability of topping LiveBench overall by end of October 2026, driven by Claude Fable 5.1's leading scores around 83-84% in recent verified snapshots across reasoning, coding, and instruction-following categories. This edge stems from consistent frontier gains in Anthropic's latest closed models, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 variants that sit 1-3 points behind on the same dynamic benchmark. Traders see limited near-term disruption, as no major competing releases from Google, Meta, or others are scheduled before the resolution window, while lower-probability names like DeepSeek or Moonshot trail significantly on objective metrics. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on Anthropic's current technical lead amid rapid but incremental AI progress.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$20,660Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds an 84.5% implied probability of topping LiveBench overall by end of October 2026, driven by Claude Fable 5.1's leading scores around 83-84% in recent verified snapshots across reasoning, coding, and instruction-following categories. This edge stems from consistent frontier gains in Anthropic's latest closed models, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 variants that sit 1-3 points behind on the same dynamic benchmark. Traders see limited near-term disruption, as no major competing releases from Google, Meta, or others are scheduled before the resolution window, while lower-probability names like DeepSeek or Moonshot trail significantly on objective metrics. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on Anthropic's current technical lead amid rapid but incremental AI progress.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$20,660Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an 84.5% implied probability of topping LiveBench overall by end of October 2026, driven by Claude Fable 5.1's leading scores around 83-84% in recent verified snapshots across reasoning, coding, and instruction-following categories. This edge stems from consistent frontier gains in Anthropic's latest closed models, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 variants that sit 1-3 points behind on the same dynamic benchmark. Traders see limited near-term disruption, as no major competing releases from Google, Meta, or others are scheduled before the resolution window, while lower-probability names like DeepSeek or Moonshot trail significantly on objective metrics. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on Anthropic's current technical lead amid rapid but incremental AI progress.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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