Anthropic's recent flagship releases, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.7/5 variants, have driven its 84% implied probability by posting leading or near-leading scores on LiveBench coding tasks and closely related agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-Bench Pro. These models excel at multi-file refactoring, long-horizon debugging, and contamination-resistant prompts that align with LiveBench's dynamic design, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Codex lines in trader assessments despite OpenAI's occasional edges on LiveCodeBench-style problems. With end-of-October resolution roughly eight weeks away, limited major releases are expected before then, reinforcing the current market consensus while leaving room for surprise updates or benchmark refreshes to shift narrower probabilities among lower-priced contenders.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 5%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$18,015 Vol.
$18,015 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
85%
OpenAI
5%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 5%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$18,015 Vol.
$18,015 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$6,398 Vol.
85%
OpenAI
$2,960 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$1,081 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$520 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$552 Vol.
<1%
$546 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$455 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$424 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$297 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$426 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$334 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$395 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$507 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$468 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$410 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$363 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$454 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$364 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$398 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$355 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$310 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's recent flagship releases, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.7/5 variants, have driven its 84% implied probability by posting leading or near-leading scores on LiveBench coding tasks and closely related agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-Bench Pro. These models excel at multi-file refactoring, long-horizon debugging, and contamination-resistant prompts that align with LiveBench's dynamic design, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Codex lines in trader assessments despite OpenAI's occasional edges on LiveCodeBench-style problems. With end-of-October resolution roughly eight weeks away, limited major releases are expected before then, reinforcing the current market consensus while leaving room for surprise updates or benchmark refreshes to shift narrower probabilities among lower-priced contenders.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$18,015Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's recent flagship releases, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.7/5 variants, have driven its 84% implied probability by posting leading or near-leading scores on LiveBench coding tasks and closely related agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-Bench Pro. These models excel at multi-file refactoring, long-horizon debugging, and contamination-resistant prompts that align with LiveBench's dynamic design, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Codex lines in trader assessments despite OpenAI's occasional edges on LiveCodeBench-style problems. With end-of-October resolution roughly eight weeks away, limited major releases are expected before then, reinforcing the current market consensus while leaving room for surprise updates or benchmark refreshes to shift narrower probabilities among lower-priced contenders.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$18,015Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent flagship releases, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.7/5 variants, have driven its 84% implied probability by posting leading or near-leading scores on LiveBench coding tasks and closely related agentic benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-Bench Pro. These models excel at multi-file refactoring, long-horizon debugging, and contamination-resistant prompts that align with LiveBench's dynamic design, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Codex lines in trader assessments despite OpenAI's occasional edges on LiveCodeBench-style problems. With end-of-October resolution roughly eight weeks away, limited major releases are expected before then, reinforcing the current market consensus while leaving room for surprise updates or benchmark refreshes to shift narrower probabilities among lower-priced contenders.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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