Anthropic’s early September launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and the restricted Mythos 5.1 variant has driven the 74.5% market-implied odds, as the models posted leading scores on Terminal-Bench 4.0 (55.8%), Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and agentic coding evaluations, outperforming contemporaneous releases. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later with standout results on ARC-AGI-3 and FrontierMath, sits at 18.1% amid slightly lower composite rankings and more limited availability. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, and other labs trail at single-digit or sub-1% odds, reflecting narrower benchmark gains. With resolution set for end-October, traders are watching for any additional frontier updates or benchmark shifts that could alter the current leader consensus before the close.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Anthropic 75%
OpenAI 18.1%
Google 6.1%
Meta 1.0%
$230,128 Vol.
$230,128 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
75%
OpenAI
18%
6%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 75%
OpenAI 18.1%
Google 6.1%
Meta 1.0%
$230,128 Vol.
$230,128 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$38,283 Vol.
75%
OpenAI
$22,330 Vol.
18%
$20,529 Vol.
6%
Meta
$22,179 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$18,264 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$16,833 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$13,832 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$17,249 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$14,949 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$11,975 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s early September launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and the restricted Mythos 5.1 variant has driven the 74.5% market-implied odds, as the models posted leading scores on Terminal-Bench 4.0 (55.8%), Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and agentic coding evaluations, outperforming contemporaneous releases. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later with standout results on ARC-AGI-3 and FrontierMath, sits at 18.1% amid slightly lower composite rankings and more limited availability. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, and other labs trail at single-digit or sub-1% odds, reflecting narrower benchmark gains. With resolution set for end-October, traders are watching for any additional frontier updates or benchmark shifts that could alter the current leader consensus before the close.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$230,128Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s early September launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and the restricted Mythos 5.1 variant has driven the 74.5% market-implied odds, as the models posted leading scores on Terminal-Bench 4.0 (55.8%), Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and agentic coding evaluations, outperforming contemporaneous releases. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later with standout results on ARC-AGI-3 and FrontierMath, sits at 18.1% amid slightly lower composite rankings and more limited availability. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, and other labs trail at single-digit or sub-1% odds, reflecting narrower benchmark gains. With resolution set for end-October, traders are watching for any additional frontier updates or benchmark shifts that could alter the current leader consensus before the close.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$230,128Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s early September launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and the restricted Mythos 5.1 variant has driven the 74.5% market-implied odds, as the models posted leading scores on Terminal-Bench 4.0 (55.8%), Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and agentic coding evaluations, outperforming contemporaneous releases. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later with standout results on ARC-AGI-3 and FrontierMath, sits at 18.1% amid slightly lower composite rankings and more limited availability. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, and other labs trail at single-digit or sub-1% odds, reflecting narrower benchmark gains. With resolution set for end-October, traders are watching for any additional frontier updates or benchmark shifts that could alter the current leader consensus before the close.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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