Anthropic’s market-implied odds of 94.5% for holding the best AI model by end of August stem primarily from its June–July 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which posted leading results on key benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro (over 80%) and agentic coding evaluations, outpacing prior Opus 4.8 performance and rival offerings. These models deliver superior capabilities in complex reasoning, long-horizon analysis, and production-scale workflows, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s competitive edge in large language model development. Limited credible reports of immediate follow-on releases from OpenAI or Google through mid-August sustain the positioning, though a surprise flagship update from either lab or a benchmark reversal on third-party leaderboards could realistically narrow the gap before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has best AI model end of August?
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Anthropic 95%
OpenAI 4.1%
Google 1.7%
Meta <1%
$1,482,825 Vol.
$1,482,825 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
95%
OpenAI
4%
2%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 95%
OpenAI 4.1%
Google 1.7%
Meta <1%
$1,482,825 Vol.
$1,482,825 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$311,625 Vol.
95%
OpenAI
$141,955 Vol.
4%
$118,293 Vol.
2%
Meta
$134,644 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$126,684 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$104,779 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$119,704 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$117,155 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$107,002 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,026 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,003 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$9,772 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$88,723 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,459 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$12,838 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$23,162 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,345 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,797 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$4,357 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,987 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,518 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s market-implied odds of 94.5% for holding the best AI model by end of August stem primarily from its June–July 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which posted leading results on key benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro (over 80%) and agentic coding evaluations, outpacing prior Opus 4.8 performance and rival offerings. These models deliver superior capabilities in complex reasoning, long-horizon analysis, and production-scale workflows, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s competitive edge in large language model development. Limited credible reports of immediate follow-on releases from OpenAI or Google through mid-August sustain the positioning, though a surprise flagship update from either lab or a benchmark reversal on third-party leaderboards could realistically narrow the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,482,825Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s market-implied odds of 94.5% for holding the best AI model by end of August stem primarily from its June–July 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which posted leading results on key benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro (over 80%) and agentic coding evaluations, outpacing prior Opus 4.8 performance and rival offerings. These models deliver superior capabilities in complex reasoning, long-horizon analysis, and production-scale workflows, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s competitive edge in large language model development. Limited credible reports of immediate follow-on releases from OpenAI or Google through mid-August sustain the positioning, though a surprise flagship update from either lab or a benchmark reversal on third-party leaderboards could realistically narrow the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,482,825Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s market-implied odds of 94.5% for holding the best AI model by end of August stem primarily from its June–July 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, which posted leading results on key benchmarks such as SWE-Bench Pro (over 80%) and agentic coding evaluations, outpacing prior Opus 4.8 performance and rival offerings. These models deliver superior capabilities in complex reasoning, long-horizon analysis, and production-scale workflows, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s competitive edge in large language model development. Limited credible reports of immediate follow-on releases from OpenAI or Google through mid-August sustain the positioning, though a surprise flagship update from either lab or a benchmark reversal on third-party leaderboards could realistically narrow the gap before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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