Anthropic holds a commanding 77% market-implied probability for the top AI model by end of October due to its September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1, which leads independent leaderboards including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign v5 with scores around 83, outperforming OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra. Strong showings from related models like Claude Opus 5 on coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as SWE-bench and GDPval-AA have reinforced trader consensus on sustained frontier positioning. OpenAI at 8.9% and Google at 6.9% reflect competitive but trailing releases, while lower odds for Meta, Moonshot, and others highlight gaps in verified capability demonstrations. With resolution tied to LMSYS Arena or similar metrics under style control, any late-October model updates could still shift sentiment before the October 31 cutoff.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 15.1%
Google 5.2%
Meta 5.0%
$17,756 Vol.
$17,756 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
77%
OpenAI
10%
5%
Meta
5%
Baidu
4%
Alibaba
3%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Meituan
1%
Xiaomi
<1%
StepFun
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 15.1%
Google 5.2%
Meta 5.0%
$17,756 Vol.
$17,756 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$11,597 Vol.
77%
OpenAI
$448 Vol.
10%
$325 Vol.
5%
Meta
$283 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$164 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$326 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$357 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$290 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$366 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$307 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$286 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$283 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$247 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$302 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$286 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$422 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$287 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$328 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$286 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$287 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$281 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a commanding 77% market-implied probability for the top AI model by end of October due to its September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1, which leads independent leaderboards including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign v5 with scores around 83, outperforming OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra. Strong showings from related models like Claude Opus 5 on coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as SWE-bench and GDPval-AA have reinforced trader consensus on sustained frontier positioning. OpenAI at 8.9% and Google at 6.9% reflect competitive but trailing releases, while lower odds for Meta, Moonshot, and others highlight gaps in verified capability demonstrations. With resolution tied to LMSYS Arena or similar metrics under style control, any late-October model updates could still shift sentiment before the October 31 cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$17,756Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a commanding 77% market-implied probability for the top AI model by end of October due to its September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1, which leads independent leaderboards including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign v5 with scores around 83, outperforming OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra. Strong showings from related models like Claude Opus 5 on coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as SWE-bench and GDPval-AA have reinforced trader consensus on sustained frontier positioning. OpenAI at 8.9% and Google at 6.9% reflect competitive but trailing releases, while lower odds for Meta, Moonshot, and others highlight gaps in verified capability demonstrations. With resolution tied to LMSYS Arena or similar metrics under style control, any late-October model updates could still shift sentiment before the October 31 cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$17,756Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding 77% market-implied probability for the top AI model by end of October due to its September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1, which leads independent leaderboards including the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign v5 with scores around 83, outperforming OpenAI’s newly released GPT-6 Astra. Strong showings from related models like Claude Opus 5 on coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as SWE-bench and GDPval-AA have reinforced trader consensus on sustained frontier positioning. OpenAI at 8.9% and Google at 6.9% reflect competitive but trailing releases, while lower odds for Meta, Moonshot, and others highlight gaps in verified capability demonstrations. With resolution tied to LMSYS Arena or similar metrics under style control, any late-October model updates could still shift sentiment before the October 31 cutoff.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong