Anthropic’s frontier Claude models, led by Claude Fable 5 and closely followed by Mythos 5 and Opus 5, have secured the top positions across major benchmarks including LMSYS Chatbot Arena, Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and BenchLM as of early August 2026. This sustained lead on quality, coding, and reasoning metrics underpins the market’s 92.5% implied probability for Anthropic, reflecting traders’ assessment that the company’s latest releases maintain a measurable edge over GPT-5 variants, Gemini models, and other contenders with only weeks remaining until the end-of-August resolution. Recent waves of competitor updates have narrowed gaps on some tasks but have not displaced Anthropic’s models from the highest composite scores. A surprise high-performing release or leaderboard shift from OpenAI, Google, or Moonshot in the final weeks could still alter the outcome, though the current trajectory favors continuity.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has #1 AI model end of August? (Style Control On)
Which company has #1 AI model end of August? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 93%
Google 3.0%
SpaceXAI 2.8%
OpenAI 2.3%
$20,718 Vol.
$20,718 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
93%
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Bytedance
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 93%
Google 3.0%
SpaceXAI 2.8%
OpenAI 2.3%
$20,718 Vol.
$20,718 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,033 Vol.
93%
$1,957 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$1,135 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$2,406 Vol.
2%
Meta
$978 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$633 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$703 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$724 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$659 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,021 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$576 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$935 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$654 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$626 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$459 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$330 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$939 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$330 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$772 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s frontier Claude models, led by Claude Fable 5 and closely followed by Mythos 5 and Opus 5, have secured the top positions across major benchmarks including LMSYS Chatbot Arena, Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and BenchLM as of early August 2026. This sustained lead on quality, coding, and reasoning metrics underpins the market’s 92.5% implied probability for Anthropic, reflecting traders’ assessment that the company’s latest releases maintain a measurable edge over GPT-5 variants, Gemini models, and other contenders with only weeks remaining until the end-of-August resolution. Recent waves of competitor updates have narrowed gaps on some tasks but have not displaced Anthropic’s models from the highest composite scores. A surprise high-performing release or leaderboard shift from OpenAI, Google, or Moonshot in the final weeks could still alter the outcome, though the current trajectory favors continuity.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$20,718Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s frontier Claude models, led by Claude Fable 5 and closely followed by Mythos 5 and Opus 5, have secured the top positions across major benchmarks including LMSYS Chatbot Arena, Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and BenchLM as of early August 2026. This sustained lead on quality, coding, and reasoning metrics underpins the market’s 92.5% implied probability for Anthropic, reflecting traders’ assessment that the company’s latest releases maintain a measurable edge over GPT-5 variants, Gemini models, and other contenders with only weeks remaining until the end-of-August resolution. Recent waves of competitor updates have narrowed gaps on some tasks but have not displaced Anthropic’s models from the highest composite scores. A surprise high-performing release or leaderboard shift from OpenAI, Google, or Moonshot in the final weeks could still alter the outcome, though the current trajectory favors continuity.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$20,718Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s frontier Claude models, led by Claude Fable 5 and closely followed by Mythos 5 and Opus 5, have secured the top positions across major benchmarks including LMSYS Chatbot Arena, Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, and BenchLM as of early August 2026. This sustained lead on quality, coding, and reasoning metrics underpins the market’s 92.5% implied probability for Anthropic, reflecting traders’ assessment that the company’s latest releases maintain a measurable edge over GPT-5 variants, Gemini models, and other contenders with only weeks remaining until the end-of-August resolution. Recent waves of competitor updates have narrowed gaps on some tasks but have not displaced Anthropic’s models from the highest composite scores. A surprise high-performing release or leaderboard shift from OpenAI, Google, or Moonshot in the final weeks could still alter the outcome, though the current trajectory favors continuity.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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