Sweden’s September 13 election produced a narrow center-left parliamentary majority of 176 seats to 173 for the outgoing Tidö parties, prompting Ulf Kristersson’s resignation and opening talks led by Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson. Persistent divisions between the Centre Party and Left Party—over ministerial posts, taxation, and policy red lines—have stalled formation, with Andersson returning her mandate on September 28 after losing V support. This fragmentation sustains trader pricing across multiple S-led variants at the top of the order book, while right-leaning combinations remain discounted due to insufficient seats and SD’s seat losses. Further speaker consultations and potential alternative mandates could shift probabilities if cross-bloc accommodations emerge before a new election threshold is reached.