**Tim Cook’s confirmed succession as Apple CEO drives the clearest outcome in this market.** Apple announced in April 2026 that Cook would become executive chairman effective September 1, with hardware engineering head John Ternus taking the CEO role; recent October leadership shuffles under Ternus, including M&A and App Store changes, have reinforced the completed transition and pushed the Cook outcome to near-certainty on Polymarket. Other named CEOs—Andy Jassy at Amazon, Sam Altman at OpenAI, Sundar Pichai at Google, Brian Armstrong at Coinbase, and Dan Clancy at Twitch—trade at low single-digit to low-teens implied probabilities, reflecting stable tenures and the absence of official announcements, credible succession leaks, or acute board pressure through early October 2026. Traders are watching for any surprise departures before year-end resolution, but current sentiment favors continuity absent major catalysts such as earnings misses, regulatory actions, or internal AI-strategy conflicts.