Washington’s 4th congressional district remains solidly Republican after the August top-two primary advanced Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky to the November 3 general election. The open seat, following Dan Newhouse’s retirement, features a district with consistent double-digit Republican presidential margins and an R+10 partisan lean. McKinney consolidated support among Trump-endorsed voters and party leadership, while Duresky unified Democratic turnout in the jungle primary. With no public polls released since August and roughly four weeks until Election Day, trader assessments of the exact victory margin reflect uncertainty over turnout patterns, campaign spending in this low-profile contest, and any late national political shifts that could influence the final spread between the top two candidates.