US sanctions, a naval blockade on Iranian oil exports, and expanded measures under Operation Economic Outcast have sharply reduced Tehran's foreign currency inflows, driving the free-market rial to successive record lows near or above 2.5 million per dollar by late September 2026. High domestic inflation exceeding 80 percent annually has compounded the depreciation, outpacing any nominal exchange-rate adjustments and tightening liquidity in physical currency markets. Indirect talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have not yet eased trader expectations, leaving the 2.5–2.8 million band as the dominant outcome. A diplomatic breakthrough lifting sanctions or restoring significant oil flows could still shift the rate, though such developments remain outside the current consensus window.