Ongoing US sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, combined with a naval blockade restricting Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, have driven the rial to successive record lows near 2.5–2.7 million per dollar in late September and early October. These measures, alongside high domestic inflation exceeding 70 percent and near-zero export revenues, continue to pressure foreign exchange reserves and widen the gap between official and free-market rates. Indirect US-Iran talks on reopening the waterway remain unresolved after recent proposals were rejected, leaving trader consensus split between the 2.5–3.0 million and 3.0–3.5 million brackets. A durable diplomatic agreement easing sanctions or restoring oil flows could strengthen the rial, while further escalation or sustained blockade enforcement would likely push rates higher by year-end.