**U.S. nuclear test by...?** The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for arsenal confidence. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to a test by late 2026 dates because no full-yield detonation has occurred and site preparation at the Nevada National Security Site typically requires 6–36 months. Late 2025 statements from President Trump directed testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China amid reported violations by those nations, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments or non-explosive activities rather than yield-producing blasts. Ongoing nuclear modernization, increased subcritical work, and delivery-system tests continue without shifting the market toward higher odds. No scheduled explosive test dates exist within the resolution windows, and practical, diplomatic, and technical hurdles limit near-term likelihood.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
Nuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
$795,539 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Setyembre 30, 2026
1%
Disyembre 31, 2026
6%
$795,539 Vol.
Setyembre 30, 2026
$57,808 Vol.
1%
Disyembre 31, 2026
$76,920 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test by...?**
The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for arsenal confidence. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to a test by late 2026 dates because no full-yield detonation has occurred and site preparation at the Nevada National Security Site typically requires 6–36 months. Late 2025 statements from President Trump directed testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China amid reported violations by those nations, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments or non-explosive activities rather than yield-producing blasts. Ongoing nuclear modernization, increased subcritical work, and delivery-system tests continue without shifting the market toward higher odds. No scheduled explosive test dates exist within the resolution windows, and practical, diplomatic, and technical hurdles limit near-term likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,539Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test by...?**
The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for arsenal confidence. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to a test by late 2026 dates because no full-yield detonation has occurred and site preparation at the Nevada National Security Site typically requires 6–36 months. Late 2025 statements from President Trump directed testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China amid reported violations by those nations, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments or non-explosive activities rather than yield-producing blasts. Ongoing nuclear modernization, increased subcritical work, and delivery-system tests continue without shifting the market toward higher odds. No scheduled explosive test dates exist within the resolution windows, and practical, diplomatic, and technical hurdles limit near-term likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,539Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear test by...?** The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for arsenal confidence. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to a test by late 2026 dates because no full-yield detonation has occurred and site preparation at the Nevada National Security Site typically requires 6–36 months. Late 2025 statements from President Trump directed testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China amid reported violations by those nations, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments or non-explosive activities rather than yield-producing blasts. Ongoing nuclear modernization, increased subcritical work, and delivery-system tests continue without shifting the market toward higher odds. No scheduled explosive test dates exist within the resolution windows, and practical, diplomatic, and technical hurdles limit near-term likelihood.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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