Trump administration officials in late March 2026 signaled potential resumption of underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site—the first since 1992—citing alleged Chinese low-yield testing and advances by Russia and China in nuclear capabilities, prompting preparations per reports from the Washington Times and Reuters. No test has occurred, with Energy Department assessments ongoing and arms control advocates emphasizing the U.S. stockpile stewardship program's success without explosions. Trader consensus prices a test by December 31, 2026, at just 9%, reflecting diplomatic hurdles under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Nevada congressional opposition, and lack of scheduled detonations, though escalation in peer rivalries or intelligence revelations could shift odds ahead of year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
Nuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
$664,780 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Hunyo 30, 2026
2%
Setyembre 30, 2026
6%
Disyembre 31, 2026
9%
$664,780 Vol.
Hunyo 30, 2026
$38,761 Vol.
2%
Setyembre 30, 2026
$5,584 Vol.
6%
Disyembre 31, 2026
$10,216 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration officials in late March 2026 signaled potential resumption of underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site—the first since 1992—citing alleged Chinese low-yield testing and advances by Russia and China in nuclear capabilities, prompting preparations per reports from the Washington Times and Reuters. No test has occurred, with Energy Department assessments ongoing and arms control advocates emphasizing the U.S. stockpile stewardship program's success without explosions. Trader consensus prices a test by December 31, 2026, at just 9%, reflecting diplomatic hurdles under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Nevada congressional opposition, and lack of scheduled detonations, though escalation in peer rivalries or intelligence revelations could shift odds ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$664,780Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration officials in late March 2026 signaled potential resumption of underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site—the first since 1992—citing alleged Chinese low-yield testing and advances by Russia and China in nuclear capabilities, prompting preparations per reports from the Washington Times and Reuters. No test has occurred, with Energy Department assessments ongoing and arms control advocates emphasizing the U.S. stockpile stewardship program's success without explosions. Trader consensus prices a test by December 31, 2026, at just 9%, reflecting diplomatic hurdles under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Nevada congressional opposition, and lack of scheduled detonations, though escalation in peer rivalries or intelligence revelations could shift odds ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$664,780Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration officials in late March 2026 signaled potential resumption of underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site—the first since 1992—citing alleged Chinese low-yield testing and advances by Russia and China in nuclear capabilities, prompting preparations per reports from the Washington Times and Reuters. No test has occurred, with Energy Department assessments ongoing and arms control advocates emphasizing the U.S. stockpile stewardship program's success without explosions. Trader consensus prices a test by December 31, 2026, at just 9%, reflecting diplomatic hurdles under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Nevada congressional opposition, and lack of scheduled detonations, though escalation in peer rivalries or intelligence revelations could shift odds ahead of year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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