The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments to certify warhead reliability. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with China and Russia has not yet produced an explosive test, and officials estimate 24–36 months would be required to prepare the Nevada National Security Site. A September 30, 2026, non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment at the site focused on improving detection of low-yield or decoupled detonations, amid ongoing U.S. accusations of Chinese activity at Lop Nur in 2020. Working-level P5 discussions on reciprocal site visits and verification measures continue, while Congress weighs funding and oversight. These factors—preparation timelines, diplomatic channels, and the absence of confirmed site activity—shape trader assessments of near-term resolution probabilities.