Stalled Russia-Ukraine negotiations through mid-2026, including the Kremlin's July statement ruling out near-term resumption of talks, represent the main driver behind traders' 94.5% probability for no peace referendum passing before 2027. Core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and sovereignty have blocked any framework that could reach a Ukrainian vote, despite earlier U.S.-mediated discussions in February about pairing a potential deal with elections or a referendum. Ukrainian polling shows majority resistance to major concessions, while martial law extensions and constitutional requirements for parliamentary or popular approval add procedural barriers. Recent diplomatic efforts produced no breakthroughs, leaving battlefield conditions and domestic constraints intact.