**The high 89.5% market-implied probability for "No" on the U.S. Space Academy commencing formal training by June 30, 2027, reflects the compressed timeline and structural requirements for establishing a new federal service academy.** President Trump signed the executive order on August 28, 2026, creating a NASA-led Presidential Commission with a 120-day mandate to deliver recommendations on governance, location, curricula, and legislative needs. A Request for Information for state-hosted sites closed October 26, 2026, while the commission's report is due by late December. Official planning documents outline groundbreaking no earlier than 2027, temporary student housing in 2028, and permanent operations by 2031—far beyond the market's mid-2027 training threshold. Actual instruction requires congressional legislation, appropriations, facility readiness, faculty recruitment, and student enrollment, none of which have advanced beyond initial planning as of October 2026. Historical precedents for comparable institutions and the absence of expedited funding or site selection further support trader consensus on the low likelihood of meeting the strict resolution criteria.