Tristan Buckmaster's public September 2026 accusations against OpenAI over credit, authorship, and potential use of his Codex session data in a Navier-Stokes fluid dynamics proof have fueled the low 15% implied probability that he files suit by year-end. Buckmaster, an NYU mathematician collaborating with Anthropic's Levent Alpöge on AI-assisted results, detailed tense calls with OpenAI researcher Sébastien Bubeck alleging pressure to exclude the co-author and career warnings; OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman strongly denied any data misuse or misconduct, asserting independent model progress. No lawsuit has materialized in the ensuing weeks amid the public dispute. Traders see limited near-term escalation risk absent new evidence or formal claims, though prolonged academic tension or verification disputes over the competing proofs could shift sentiment before the 2026 deadline.