Recent polling from institutes including Quaest, Real Time Big Data, Paraná Pesquisas, and Directa shows Professora Dorinha (União) maintaining a consistent lead over Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) in first-round scenarios and holding an edge in runoff simulations. Her support has risen in successive surveys conducted through early October, while the deputy remains the clearest challenger. Low single-digit support for other registered names such as Laurez Moreira, Ataídes de Oliveira, and Siqueira Campos Jr. has kept the contest focused on the top two. With the first round completed and a second round scheduled for late October, trader pricing reflects the current polling gap and the limited remaining time for shifts in voter preference before ballots close.