Skip to main content
icon for The Thiel Parlay

The Thiel Parlay

icon for The Thiel Parlay

The Thiel Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022: 1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election 2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election 3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate 4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true. ----------------------------------------------------- Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market. The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to. Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used. This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022:

1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election
2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election
3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate
4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true.

-----------------------------------------------------

Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off.

Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.

Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to.

Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.
Volume
$27,218
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 8, 2022
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 3, 2022, 8:00 PM ET

Resolver

0xCB1822859...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022: 1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election 2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election 3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate 4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true. ----------------------------------------------------- Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market. The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to. Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used. This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

Na-propose ang outcome: No

Walang dispute

Pinal na outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022: 1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election 2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election 3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate 4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true. ----------------------------------------------------- Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market. The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to. Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used. This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022:

1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election
2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election
3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate
4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true.

-----------------------------------------------------

Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off.

Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.

Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to.

Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.
Volume
$27,218
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 8, 2022
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 3, 2022, 8:00 PM ET

Resolver

0xCB1822859...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022: 1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election 2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election 3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate 4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. House Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If one or more of the above enumerated conditions is false, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" only if every one of the above 4 enumerated conditions is true. ----------------------------------------------------- Peter Thiel is a German-American billionaire entrepreneur and political activist who is well-known for pumping money into conservative and Republican causes. Mr. Thiel has openly supported GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in their respective U.S. Senate races, and is pulling for Republican control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. This is a market on whether a profile of Mr. Thiel's political gambles pay off. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be determined solely by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An elected Senator who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other if on Election Day that person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent as of 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election. In the event a Senate seat is vacant at 12:00 AM ET on the day of the 2022 US general election, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered toward the resolution of this market. The controlling party of the Senate is defined as the party to which a majority of Senators belong to, or if the Senate is split 50-50 between two parties, the party with which the vice president is affiliated with between those two parties. The controlling party of the House is defined as the party to which a majority of House members belong to. Elected members of the House of Representatives who are without full voting rights (e.g. "delegates”, “resident commissioners”) do not count toward the 435 members considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used. This market will resolve after the results of the 2022 general elections are made publicly available, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, final state election authority certifications or other final official determinations of the 2022 election results may be used.

Na-propose ang outcome: No

Walang dispute

Pinal na outcome: No

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "The Thiel Parlay" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 0% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 0¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 0% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "The Thiel Parlay" ay naka-generate ng $27.2K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 4, 2022. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "The Thiel Parlay," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "The Thiel Parlay" ay 0% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 0% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "The Thiel Parlay" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.