Mayes Middleton secured the Republican nomination after defeating U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May 2026 primary runoff, positioning him as the frontrunner in Texas's open-seat attorney general contest. The state's consistent Republican performance in statewide races since the late 1990s underpins trader consensus favoring Middleton at 76.5% implied probability. Nathan Johnson, the Democratic nominee who won his May runoff, launched a seven-figure statewide ad campaign on October 5 emphasizing rule of law and reduced politicization of the office. Recent polls from August and September showed Middleton ahead by five points amid a larger-than-typical undecided share, though Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the race Likely Republican. Early voting begins October 19 ahead of the November 3 general election.