Vox holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for third place in Spain’s November 29 snap election, reflecting consistent polling averages that place the party at roughly 19%—well ahead of fragmented left alternatives such as Frente Amplio/Sumar and Podemos. Recent surveys show Vox nearly doubling its 2023 seat total, supported by gains among younger and male voters concerned with immigration and security, while the center-right PP leads overall and PSOE trails in second. The early election call after housing decree defeats has not altered this ordering, as left-wing fragmentation limits any single challenger from overtaking Vox in national or most provincial tallies. Late shifts in turnout, unexpected left consolidation, or polling surprises comparable to 2023 could still alter the outcome before election night.