Google’s 49% implied probability reflects its unmatched scale in compute, data, and product integration, allowing Gemini 3.8 Flash to deliver competitive agentic and multimodal performance even as individual benchmarks fluctuate. The early-September wave of releases—Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, and Google’s own update—has tightened the race, with Sector HQ rankings placing Anthropic first, OpenAI second, and Google third as of September 11. Traders appear to view OpenAI as the consensus leader, capping its second-place odds at 6.6%, while Meta’s rapid gains and Anthropic’s safety-focused positioning create a contested middle tier. Key near-term catalysts include October benchmark updates, additional model drops, and any shifts in enterprise adoption or regulatory signals that could reorder the hierarchy before month-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateSecond-best AI Lab end of October?
Second-best AI Lab end of October?
Google 49%
Anthropic 22%
Meta 20%
OpenAI 9.4%
$19,283 Vol.
$19,283 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
49%
Anthropic
22%
Meta
20%
OpenAI
9%
SpaceXAI
4%
Alibaba
3%
Z.ai
2%
Thinky
1%
Moonshot
1%
Baidu
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
Microsoft
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Google 49%
Anthropic 22%
Meta 20%
OpenAI 9.4%
$19,283 Vol.
$19,283 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
$8,677 Vol.
49%
Anthropic
$1,837 Vol.
22%
Meta
$971 Vol.
20%
OpenAI
$526 Vol.
9%
SpaceXAI
$311 Vol.
4%
Alibaba
$772 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$478 Vol.
2%
Thinky
$705 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$382 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$463 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$551 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$304 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$466 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$380 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$341 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$372 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$333 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$295 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$345 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$304 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$472 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s 49% implied probability reflects its unmatched scale in compute, data, and product integration, allowing Gemini 3.8 Flash to deliver competitive agentic and multimodal performance even as individual benchmarks fluctuate. The early-September wave of releases—Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, and Google’s own update—has tightened the race, with Sector HQ rankings placing Anthropic first, OpenAI second, and Google third as of September 11. Traders appear to view OpenAI as the consensus leader, capping its second-place odds at 6.6%, while Meta’s rapid gains and Anthropic’s safety-focused positioning create a contested middle tier. Key near-term catalysts include October benchmark updates, additional model drops, and any shifts in enterprise adoption or regulatory signals that could reorder the hierarchy before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$19,283Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s 49% implied probability reflects its unmatched scale in compute, data, and product integration, allowing Gemini 3.8 Flash to deliver competitive agentic and multimodal performance even as individual benchmarks fluctuate. The early-September wave of releases—Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, and Google’s own update—has tightened the race, with Sector HQ rankings placing Anthropic first, OpenAI second, and Google third as of September 11. Traders appear to view OpenAI as the consensus leader, capping its second-place odds at 6.6%, while Meta’s rapid gains and Anthropic’s safety-focused positioning create a contested middle tier. Key near-term catalysts include October benchmark updates, additional model drops, and any shifts in enterprise adoption or regulatory signals that could reorder the hierarchy before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$19,283Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s 49% implied probability reflects its unmatched scale in compute, data, and product integration, allowing Gemini 3.8 Flash to deliver competitive agentic and multimodal performance even as individual benchmarks fluctuate. The early-September wave of releases—Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, and Google’s own update—has tightened the race, with Sector HQ rankings placing Anthropic first, OpenAI second, and Google third as of September 11. Traders appear to view OpenAI as the consensus leader, capping its second-place odds at 6.6%, while Meta’s rapid gains and Anthropic’s safety-focused positioning create a contested middle tier. Key near-term catalysts include October benchmark updates, additional model drops, and any shifts in enterprise adoption or regulatory signals that could reorder the hierarchy before month-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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