**Traders assign an 82.5% probability that no snap election will be called in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026.** The regular Landtag election took place on September 6, 2026, with the AfD securing 39 of 83 seats (short of the 42-seat majority) and the new parliament convening on October 6. The minister-president vote is scheduled for December, following constitutional procedures that require absolute-majority ballots before any dissolution vote can occur. Post-election developments show stalled coalition talks, with the AfD pursuing the premiership while other parties maintain distance and the CDU has signaled it will exit the chamber during the vote. Limited cross-party support has appeared in procedural matters (such as the Landtag presidency), but no party has triggered or signaled imminent dissolution proceedings. The state constitution allows a snap election only after failed minister-president ballots and a subsequent dissolution vote, a sequence that remains weeks or months away as of mid-October. With the December timeline still open and no immediate breakdown forcing early dissolution, market pricing reflects the low near-term likelihood of a snap election before year-end.